RE:NGC MORNING BRIEF
IMHO if Biden gets replaced, it will be business as usual re policies etc....nothing will change. The political narrative cannot change as per the quick timeline to November....keep it simple and consistent.
Key thing, is that if Biden is replaced, Trump will lose a tonne of independent votes right out the gate. Remove Biden's mental capacity argument, and you instantly get those, 'I don't want to vote for Trump, but at least he is competent' votes....immediately. Those independents will determine the outcome and that would very much hurt Trump.
Either way I don't think it matters. Don't forget, Trump has openly stated numerous times he will impose higher Chinese tariffs right away, up to %60...I'm talking raw graphite and anode. Also, he doesn't like the IRA, and has also stated he would get rid of half the IRA rebate $3750...
...so what if you're GM or Ford...if Trump is elected,
1) you now stand to lose your 2 years IRA exemption of $3750 (access to Chinese anode/graphite), loss per vehicle...
2) you go from a current 'zero tariff' of Chinese graphite to %60 tariff overnight....ouch $$$$$
The combined two financial hits cannot be over stated how much that would hurt OEM's margins...and this is within the backdrop of ongoing price wars between OEM's.
Trump's policies will cause North American OEM's to have no choice, $$$$ wise, to immediately step up and start funding the North American supply chain, specifically re graphite/anode...this will be Trump's last term, he just doesn't care....he will hammer China and NA OEM's will pay the price.
So, if Trump wins...great for NGC. OEM's will be calling the very next day, 'How much do you need $$$$$, and how fast can you build that?'
Personally, if Biden drops out, his replacement will win the day simply due to the math...Trump's biggest and most rallying talking point is 'a cognitive deteriorating Biden'...if that talking point is removed, then what does Trump have left to talk about? Not much.
New candidate, same policies...Trump loses his main talking point and loses the independent vote in the wash.
July 5th application deadline...tick tock.
Hugues, make it happen. Do your job.