RE:Who dunnit?Well nincompoop, as usual I disagree with your comment that this is such a hard case to crack. I will admit it's a little tougher to investigate without access to the crime scene, but it is what it is.
I mentioned in a post yesterday that I had a theory how this occurred and provided a clue for readers to look in the 2023 Technical Report for that clue. Well, it seems that at least one reader did so and they were very close to finding the most important clue so I gave them the rest of my theory, but that reader has yet to check their in-box. If you're the reader who PM'd me (and you know who you are) check your in-box.
I also received another PM from a poster that appreciates my non-expert opinion posts and thoughts and I shared my theory with them as well but that's it, I won't be sharing it as a general bullboard post nor via any further PMs so keep digging, the clues are more obvious than it seems once you know where to look.
I'll wait for a release by the company and/or the Yukon authorities on the known cause, but I can say with considerable confidence they both already know exactly what caused this slide. And my guess is that the Yukon authorities won't release that info until they have a much better understanding of the environmental effects and full extent of damage because if I'm right, the Yukon authorities likely have a significant liability here as well, as elected and lawfully appointed overseers of the mine's development, maintenance, and operations. The company has significant liability here as well, but my point is (if my theory is correct), the company is not alone in all this.
At this point, based on the info I have, I'm about 99% sure I know how this happened, who caused this, what they were doing at the time that caused this slide, and why they were doing what they were (the 5 W's of journalism and investigators - Who, What, Where, When, and Why). I will say that if I'm correct, this was an accident. Here's another clue; some readers are posting / asking how did that bulldozer end up in the slide material way down there? Well consider this with the clue in the Technical Report and you should soon find your answer.
I won't divulge my theory because well, I'm admittedly no expert in mining. However, I am a former Criminal Forensic Investigator Expert (retired now and yes nincompoop I too value expert opinion) so I'm pretty good at looking for clues and solving mysteries. I've even done a little statement analysis in my 42 year career, but hey what do I know? And since nincompoop seems to value expert opinions without fact then I'm hoping he'll cut me a little slack here because this theory though largely based on Fact has a sprinkle of opinion as well.....Lol.
If I could only ask the company management or the Yukon officials just one question I could confirm my theory, but hey good luck with that one....so I wait.
What I don't know (and wish I did) is where exactly and what portion of the HL pad was impacted or damaged by the slide. Some here seem to believe that the ore on the whole HL pad (up hill / North to the very top of the pad) slid down and based on the photos I've seen, I'm finding that real hard to believe. The company has reported that about 4 million tons of material in total slid, with 2 million tons remaining on the pad and 2 million tons going down the slope with the slide. I believe the slide material on the pad and main damage to the pad (if any) is limited to the lower left (SW corner of the pad), again based on photos only. And if it is limited, the damage and repair costs are at a much lower level than re-engineering and building a completely new pad.
Many posters are focused on the company's liability and if my theory proves correct, then the Yukon Government's liability is likely going to be equal to or perhaps even greater than VG. So at this point, I don't think VG bankruptcy is a given, unless of course you prefer to listen to EricSnott and Singola58 because don't ya know, this mine is done!
OK, this post has become a short story, so enough for now. Let's ee how long it takes EricSnott and/or Singola58 to quickly bury it with their usual short burst repetative doom and gloom posts.
My opinion only, please DYODD.
HB77