RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:13 trading days left before ERBBDB859 wrote: Thanks Nobody.
That sounds about the right neighborhood. I have it similar with higher Service Revs at $500M. I'm closer $2.03B. Hope the count is 37 deliveries and not closer to 30 like the last Q surprise.
If we delivered 37 planes and NOT say 31 like the last Quarter reduction?
Then we should have an EBITDA of, aprox: $355M and an EBIT of aprox; $185M.
Then, given the way it's going so far this year. For the full year of 2024 We should have around $1.45B in EBITDA for all of 2024
" " " " $ 600M in EBIT " " " " (after Int. & Capex)
We should end up with about $550 +FCF. Which is about $150M more than the higher end ($400M) predicted by Management for 2024. Unless they find a way to spend some of it on an acquisition of say Spirit, or use it somewhere else to reduce it. Financial strength is great. Remember they have a huge $12B of tax losses, but they don't want to use them up too quickly either. So they could show less +FCF for every year, and every Quarter going forward. it's great to have those Tax losses.
This is why I say the shares are going to start taking off. Because I expect an EPS of around $15/s for 2024, and going up every year from 2024 on.
Can you say 3 to 1 share split? This is what they should do, when the shares reach $120 to $150 range.
Now, the way they're going about reinvesting heavily in the first Quarter for Inventory for the higher Production plan of (155-160 for 2025). They could end up using their 2024 +FCF and bring their +FCF down, just so they don't end using too much of their Reserves, or even throw almost all of it on the LTD, say about $400M to bring the LTD closer to $5B. So 2025 will be even better, when you consider the lower Capex, and the lower Interest payments. This is great, when you see such strength in +FCF annually. So the Balance sheet is getting cleaned up even further, and thanks to
Bart D, the Financial Statements are going to reflect this strength. We may even get some Investors Equity soon? This is what a good CFO can do with Financial Statements.
Warning: These are rough figures, and anything could happen in one time charges, (ie. the NY settlement with the Bondholders), acquisitions, and other expences such as, the balance of the remaining $30M CRJ's RVG. They also have Bond discharge penalties for all the rangling around they did to bring down the LTD to a max of $750M each, for every year starting in 2027. Which btw was brilliant.
So enjoy the ride boys & girls. "The skies are really blue" (Bicente).