RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:13 trading days left before ERstock4life48 wrote: so assuming we have 37 deliveries @ an average of $43M per equals $1.591B. Add in services and I am going to take RBC forecast of $479M (they don't expect it to break $500M before Q4/24) = total revenue of $2.07B
Average EBITDA margin in 2023 was 15.3%, Q1/24 was 16.2% (RBC project an average for 2024 of 15.6%). Assuming the average of 15.6% = $323M EBITDA. I'll put EDBIT at ~$175M
FCF burn should remain at ($155M) for Q2. It was ($387M) for Q1. For the year at +$236M in line with guidance, I can't see anyway its going to beat upper end guidance of $400M with a ($542M) burn in the first half. Happy to listen if someone can show me #s that get us there in each of Q3 and Q4.
BBD559, read Investors Day presentation page 12, guidance for 2024 is 150-155 planes and 2025 is "~150 planes". please stop with saying 160, no one but you is saying that. If you promise the moon and under deliver, its going to be a crash landing. Much better to set your standards as realistic.
Also show me how we are going to get $15 EPS in 2024. Q1 was $1.02. I am thinking $1.50-1.60 in Q2. Street for the full year is ~$4 if I recall
Nice job Stock4.
Assuming that Bombardier predicted 150 to 155 for 2024, then to get to 160 units, is just common sense. As I said on the post that the delivery units depends totally on demand and orders on the Backlog. We haven't finished 2024 and Q1 was a banner Quarter for B/B ratio. So to get to 160 units is a joke. They're not going to reduce production or increase by too much going forward like when we went for 120 units in 2022 to 150/155 this year. But 160 is, easily an attainable #.
As for EPS? Yes I'm sorry I just saw that error. I used the full EBITDA not net Earning for the calculation. So $750M /95M shares =
$7.8 EPS . RBC's #'s according to you have Q1 & Q2?24 at $2.5 already. So Q3 & Q4 are the heaviest on Profit so we should blow the doors off the RBC prediction. Let's see who's right after 2024. I also Estimate, that going forward after 2025 that we should consrtanly hit $9 to $10/sh annually going forward. Btw, always remember not to rely on my Numbers as they are only my rough estimates, & anything could materially change in what the company's financial commitment is, and therefore could change the FS materially.