The Truth https://ceo.ca/nano?f253661b199a
The only story with Nano now is how low can this stock go. There is no other news. Nobody care anymore about the short term pump we will get from even the biggest news. Now it's all about the stock catastrophic collapse. And how much lower can we go!!?
There is no ltelling the bottom (aside from zero). And the upside potential is now far far outweighed by the substantial downside risk.
Absolute best case scenario: Nano announces a partner and plans for a 25k TPA facility that will be inservice in 2027. And the government is paying $0.50 on the dollar.
If that scenario was to be announced tomorrow, the stock would absolute best case rocket 50%-100% immediately.
Then it would set in that project execution risk on a $350MM USD facility is significant. And partners back out of mega projects all the time in this space. And the government funding will have strings attached that the plant actually needs to be built and placed into operations for Nano to keep the funding.
And the stock will then correct again and we will all be waiting until 2027 to see if the plant ever actually gets built since Nano has no significant revenue until minimum 2027 if and when the forever plant actually gets built and works. A big if. The first plant working well off the hop? I call BS. And noody will actually know the answer until 2027 and the probability is they will have lots of executoanf operational challenges on their first commercial plant.
And licensees will want to see that plant built before they FID a plant of their own. So definitely no mass adoption of One Pot until after 2027 when majors see that Nano plants actuall yield fantastic (not just good or a average) but fantastic fantastic CAM products. Sounds like fantasy.
And the run rates of their first plant will need to be commercially competitive (accounting for whatever the real world reject rates are from a One Pot plant which cannot be known until one is built and in operations and proving the fact with product).
All this for what? Maybe a 50%-100% temporary pump to $2.50?
This stock is never breaking out until serious revenues are flowing which means anyone waiting now is waiting until 2027 until this stock breaks out. And it will be years after the next big announcement before Nano sees revenues.
So I repeat my mantra: Sell on news.
Is $2 reasonable in the short term with some mega news? A 70% pump? Yeah okay. Sure especially with a mega announcement. Heck maybe even $2.50.
And if the sector pumps and Nano announces a big partner and plans for a plant? Fine $3.
And government mega funding? Fine $3.25.
NANO ONE will not moonshot until they actually have mega REVENUES incoming. And that could very well be never. And definitely not before 2027. Which is years and years away.
But $2.50 sounds fantastic to me. A-okay in my books.
I'm thrilled for the upcoming pump to $2 and will be happy to sell on news and walk away. Let the stock crater again. Play with it like a yo-yo until 2027.
Great company. Great long term vision. Absolutely horrible stock if you buy and hold. And will be for some time.
To be honest, Dan and the team we believe in may or may not even be around by then. A sudden departure or passing of key staff in the coming years might have significant implications to the prospects of the company. What kind of business is that? That's the problem with a pre-revenue company.
good luck to all the longs .