Cyclicity of propane pricingPeak to trough propane prices seem to follow a four year sinusoidal pattern, with the weakest pricing ending at the beginning of even years (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024). Strongest pricing appears to occur two years later, again every four years (2014, 2018, 2022). Maybe we are in for a peak in 2026?
Weather plays a role, and we just got out of a protracted El Nino, and are now at the beginnings of a La Nina, although the cool weather typical of a La Nina year has been thus far absent in the west.
If you look at a twenty year chart of Superior Propane, and even though it is a range-bound pig, you will note the peaks and troughs caused by the four year propane pricing cycle.
So what do we do? Averageing down and waiting is an option, but it will give management two additional years to potentially ruin things.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/propane https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ENSOFactSheetWinter1617.pdf