Scotiabank Scotiabank analyst Jason Bouvier sees a bright future for domestic oil producers,
“TMX [pipeline] has been operational since May, and differentials [between Western Canada Select and WTI crude] remained narrow through Q2. Robust FCF [free cash flow] (higher oil prices, lower Cdn diffs) and many companies at or near their net debt targets suggests increased shareholder returns. We continue to favor heavy oil producers given the positive egress outlook, coupled with heavy oil refining capacity additions outpacing supply growth. Further, oil sands players benefit from currently weak natural gas prices. Top Picks: CVE and IMO for large caps and VRN for SMID caps … there is potential for ~370 mbbl/d of pipeline optimization opportunities that could extend this timeline. Q2 WCS differentials have narrowed to $13.55/bbl (down 18% vs the 2021-2023 average), and we expect differentials to remain in the $13-$15/bbl range long-term … MEG, SCR, IPCO, and IMO have the most torque to stronger heavy oil prices..”