RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Not official, just the word from workers on siteI don't think the report is bogus Robert41, but I do think the information provided by widrig (who I believe previously stated that his son or relative worked at the mine) is being misinterpreted by many on this board (and perhaps even by him). First of all when widrig mentions in his post "Liner being installed in pit, making pit into a retaining pond" I highly doubt they are actualy building a NEW retaining pond on the pad as the statement seems to suggest. First of all the slide area and the pad is allegedly unstable according engineers and so there's no way YTG or EMR is authorizing that kind of activity on the pad.
Therefore, that liner being installed must be somewhere near the In-Heap Pond and once the repair is completed, the In-Heap Pond will become a 'Temporary' retaining pond to contain any solution that continues to drain down the pad. and be pumped out and down to the actual retaining pond below. To me this work makes sense because if they get a good rainfall in the coming weeks, they need to make sure they can contain any further solution that gets moving down the pad that would no doubt be triggered by that type of rainfall. So my guess is that the In-Heap Pond will become a 'Temporary' retainment pond while they also continue work to stabilized the slide area. Once the slide area is stabilized, the 2 million tons of slide ore has been remediated, and the extent of the environmental impact is much better understood, that's when the company can decide whether to file for bankruptcy or seek further financing or whether it can summon more investment dollars to keep things going. The company wouldn't still be there if they didn't see even a glimmer of hope of coming out of this mess and the sooner the actual cause of the slide can be determined and confirmed, the sooner the fate of VG can be determined.
So, I highly doubt they are building a new retaining pond on the pad. Instead they are more likely repairing the liner where it separated during the slide, likely around the In-Heap Pond where the dozer driver stated he saw the liner come apart. There may be other liner repairs but to date, the only liner that we can be quite certain separated is where the dozer operator stated he actually saw the liner separate. The rest is mere speculation until proven otherwise.
At this point, there's lot of theories about what happened but there's still a lot of unanswered questions and missing facts and until an thorough investigation is completed and the findings officially reported, all this bullboard chatter is just that...chatter. Some here have already concluded this event is the result of an engineering design fault. Some say there was too much ore being stacked on the pad. Some experts believe it is water under the pad that triggered the slide, and some are accusing VG Management of operational errors and want JM and the rest of the management tram drawn and quartered. But I'm not yet convinced that the dozer operator didn't unintentionally trigger the slide and believes the haul truck instead triggered the slide. I say this because, first of all, the dozer operator had to be operating somewhere between the In-Heap Pond and the embankment edge or the dozer would have ended up in the In-Heap Pond if he was on the upper side of the pond. And second, how did the alleged haul truck not slide down and into the In-Heap Pond or over the embankment as well? We're not hearing anything about this alleged haul truck, its operator or from other workers. The results of a thorough investigation will come out and after all the theories and lined up lynching mobs, the actual cause was an accident triggered by the dozer operator? Can YTG, EMR, and even FN justify still shutting down the mine? Legally, I doubt it.
So I'd like to know, what was teh dozer operator doing in that embankment area? Embankment enhancement perhaps authorized by the company and approved by EMR? The dozer operator says that at the time of the slide, he looked up and saw a haul truck coming down the pad (that was initially reported on this board as it wasn't even suppose to be on the pad), he also stated that he felt the ground shake and saw the pad liner separate. So if he was between the In-Heap Pond and the embankment ledge, then the liner he saw separate had to be nearby and not way up the pad where the alleged haul truck was. So, my guess is that area is where the liner is being repaired in order to use the In-Heap Pond as a 'Temporary' retainment pond.
Now let me be clear that I feel for the dozer operator who had a h_ll of a ride down that embankment and thank God he wasn't killed. But setting this aside, did the alleged haul truck coming down the pad even have anything to do with this or did the dozer operator happen to move some earth at just the right spot and away she goes? Anyone who's ever shoveled pile of dirt knows that all you have to do is move a small amount of dirt from the bottom of a steep pile and the upper dirt slides down. So for those that believe this couldn't have possibly have been trigerred by the dozer operator, I believe it could have and maybe did....we just don't know at this point.
Now the next point I want to comment on is the company soon running out of money. I'm also not convinced the company is running out of money quite as fast as some here believe. They apparently had $40 million in cash at the time of the incident. Their Q2 quarterly revenue should have been about $100 million CAD. So if they aren't paying their bills or debt, they could have a significant portion of that $100 million plus whatever they had in cash. They're now paying 60 essential staff and not 500 staff so the cash they have and their ability to hold off the wolves might be a bit more than some think. If they can keep going for even a couple or three more months, they will have a much better idea where things stand and if things do start turning positive, then you can bet they'll get more financing one way or another.
I'm not disillusioned enough to not realize this outcome could go either way but I'm also convinced the end result is as cut and dried as some here believe. As I've stated many times already, I'm looking for the facts whatever they may eventually be. My investment decisions with respect to this company won't be driven by emotion but facts. I learned a long time ago to remove emotion from my investment decisions and stick to the facts. We certainly have no shortage of opinions on this board, while facts are a little harder to come by. A few more facts around why the dozer operator was working in or near the embankment area and more about the alleged haul truck may just add a whole new twist to this mystery.
My opinion only, please DYODD.
HB77