RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:PredictionIts very unlikely Sheinbaum will permit new open pits, its much more likely that even if she engages her logical brain, the result will not be beneficial for open pits, as that is a politically charged topics, where the current "solution" is pragmatic with only limited economic costs. The current solution is open pits are allowed to continue operating, underground is also getting permitted, new open pits arent.
What you suggests would entail high political costs for only limited economic benefit. Its a mistake to lump everything togehter. She can not expropriate but effectively ban new open pits. She can near shore but not allow new open pits. She can allow undergorund mining but not new open pit mining. Etc.
So what you are saying, its either internationalism or communism, but there are lots of grey shaded solutions, where dsv does not get a permit. Its actually the most likely path, with expropriation being a bit more likely than a permit.
So basically: 80% = no new permit but also not expropriation, 15% expropriation, 5% open pit permit.
In all but the last scenario this stock is going lower. Why? Because the expropriation risk will remain priced in not matter what Sheinbaum says (unless she issues permits), but if she refuses permit then that will get priced out (i.e. chance of permit). So in the 80% scenario it goes lower. In the 15% scenario (expropriation) it crashes. In the 5% scenario it goes up 200% (unless there are so many strings attached that its a valueless permit).
To sum it up: The risk reward is not favorable here.