FDR and a scorching-fast 3rd Derivative outputNo massive increase in FDR posts/posters on CEO.ca (yet), but the absolute fastest uptake ever on my previous Stockhouse FDR post. I posted it very late last night (a *Saturday* night, mind you), when I assumed most of my potential audience would be asleep. Guess FDR loyalists are always on duty.
I had something new to say, but I also was curious to see how quickly it got read. Apologies if I woke anyone up with alerts, though you might want to reconsider using your smart phone as an alarm clock.
The post got 64 views in 2 hours – probably a record for anything I’ve ever done at Stockhouse. For context, my posts normally get around 20-30 views in the first 24-hour period.
I hypothesized a few months back that just as a given stock’s rising trading volume has for 100+ years preceded a rise/fall in its price, today we can use rising social media chatter on a stock to predict rising volume/price. And my 3rd Derivative frame predicts that just before the volume of chatter itself increases, there will be increasing hunger for reading whatever the usual posters say.
When I decided to start writing about FDR, I situated myself on Stockhouse because I figured it had become the home of the long-form content, while the play-by-play had moved to CEO.ca. But the other advantage to Stockhouse, for my purposes, is that CEO.ca does not show views for a post, only likes. Granted, likes are a proxy for views, and the “online” running tally is also a good proxy. I recall it peaking at 150+ for the Great Bear channel when the official buyout news broke.
All of which is to say, it looks like FDR is headed for besting its Friday all-time-high stock price tomorrow morning. If that move is preceded by additional new posters (already occurring on CEO.ca lately), and additional posts by long-time posters, all while the average word-length of posts is rising, I may be able to upgrade my hypothesis into a formal theory.
And if this all sounds like self-fulfilling prophecy… maybe that’s because action generates dopamine which feeds back into more action. As regular gym-goers already know. It might be just that simple.
Have fun tomorrow, everyone.