who are the key stakeholder in a take over bid?As Fortescue holds 31% and will not be able to participate in the take over vote due to a CoI - who are the key stakeholders that will need to be convinced to get the 66% majority - or in other words who holds a 33% blocking minority>
1. Forget about the Retail holders / although the would hold 26/0,69 voting percentage and therefore could block a transfer - I would say most of them are sheep, out for a quick buck
2. Funds and Fam hold 18,5/0,69 voting percentages - not enough for blocking the take over, but of sufficient weight and they will need to be convinced to get below 33% votes against
3. Directors/Officers with their 6,8/0,69 percentage they are relevant but without other groups in support Joanne and her friends will be lost,
4. Peruvian High net worth with their 17,5/069 percentage they will be important to get on board
So Fortescues goal must be to scare the retailers with making sure that the stock price appreciations before the takeover are limited or even down sell the stock, while at the same time get the Funds and Peruvian high net worths in the boat with an attractive offer. Now that Joanne is out the board endorsement of any take over bid is a done deal - so this is not a hurdle anymore.
My feeling is that we are watching in real time Fortescues moves to take over ATCU in a strategically well defined plan. Next step will be to increase their cheap shares by offering an above market price PP. Once this is done expect a first take over bid at the low site and than a incresase to a value of I would guess about 200 mill - so to make retailers feel they have made an excellent deal.
GLTA