RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:FX impact and optics for debt has emotions running high.raven16 wrote: JohnnyDoe wrote: HeavyBanana wrote: JohnnyDoe wrote: HeavyBanana wrote: 50% fcf did go to service debt but alas the change in fx provides for poor optics on paper.
I imagine if all fcf went to pay debt and the same fx change applied, the same people bellyaching here now would be bellyaching that the company did not service the debt as they guided because on paper it doesn't reflect full value of debt repayment because of that fx impact.
FX can play both ways. No bellyaching when it is in our favour.
i undertand the effects of the currency. Unfortunatley, they're on the wrong side of it. What's worse is it seems Cdn currency has unhinged itself from oil. Many think our currency is going to drop into the low 60s and settle there. That makes the debt worse.
Bottom line....the balance sheet simply isn't being cleaned up.
And i think the market completely agrees with me. There are companies out there with longer inventory that are already paying out 75% of FCF. Ranger acquisition 18 months later, the stock is down 20% at this point.
personally i think the only option for BTE is sell the eagle ford, retreat to canada, give greagher his walkig papers
Regardless of what some pundits might be saying about CAD in the future, the here and now is that the company did meet all objectives of guidance for Q2.
The market whipsawed ATH after their release too, it's what the market does in this environment.
Baytex is set up very nicely for Q3 and Q4 and by saying that it isn't pushing hope down the road, it's just an objective fact that management is hitting its stride as far as meeting guidance goes.
actually, it is an objective fact that mgmt has been adjusting guidance as it goes, with a short term notice that guidance isn't going to get hit so it gets changed.
go back and look at the Ranger acquisition, what they said, the guidance along the way, and where they are now.
i hope Q3 ad Q4 do improve. But as I pointed out yesterday, you do the math and they should be roughly 40M in shareholder returns thus far in the Q.....but hte only referenced 24M in buybacks thru July 25. They are identifiably behind guidance. Again.
You Know Johnny,You've Been Pretty Negative On BTE For Almost A Year Anyway And If I Remember You Got Into ATH And Would Come Back To This Board And Always Post Negative Comments Regarding BTE,There Was A Time I Respected Your Opinion But Not Anymore,So What You Say Is Meaningless.
well Raven, i've never owned ATH so you're struggling with your memory. BTE i smy biggest Cdn oil holding, has been for a number of years. And I've definitely been burnt having a large chunk of BTE and it being down 20% over 18 months.
I started going downhill on BTE in November / December 2023. That's when to me it seemed that the guidance and the reality weren't aligning.
I understand eveyrthing that's being said about reducing costs, longer laterals, re-fracking eagle ford, and on and on...but that talk isn't materializing in to an improved balance sheet and without that balance sheet improving, the SP won't improve.
And as I posted yesteday, Brian has acknolwedged that the balance sheet - relative to peers - is not great. I will share that email with you if you'd like to see it.