RE:RE:RE:RE:Two great news releases and down 10 centsHey mrmotibund, I thought your post was quite fine. There is nothing vulgar about referring to a body part in a post. You deserve a pat on the back for standing up, chest out, to represent reasonable peoplekind (formerly mankind). When actors are about to go on stage, they are often encouraged with the expression, "Break a leg!" and no one is wishing them ill. Well done my friend.
Now to the content of your post...while management has no given formal guidance, it has indicated the it expects the sector to grow at ~+15% and it expects QTRH to be north of that, possibly in the +20% range on revenue. That's reflected in my model which projects +19%; the average of the three covering analysts is +8%. All analyses were done in Canadian dollars.
With a move to USD reporting, baseline 2023 revenue in USD was $144M. Q1 was $35M, an increase of +23%. Q2 should provide additional visibility on the year, but clearly with no new tolling award announcements during the quarter, there will be a draw down on the $500M backlog. This is consistent with commentary on recent calls, reflecting current, on the books, projects moving from the implementation phase to operations. Based on all prior comments on the margin profile of operations versus implementation, QTRH should start to see margins begin to move up in Q2 and Q3. In addition, there may be milestone payments that could be captured in Q2. I believe Q2 will present a solid financial base from which growth will be positively recieved by the market.
IMO, the news releases todate have served a purpose of planting strategic flags - Asia, as you note; North Dakota - SaaS state-wide; statewide WIM/e-screening contract in Tennessee; Red Fox acquisition; camera techology advancement in Germany/Austria; unified branding; high profile at industry show circuit events.
For the year, management has talked about late 2024 and into 2025 as a period of increased growth. This suggests that major growth intiatives should be announced near term, i.e. - over the next 2-4 months. An unannounced factor to consider is the team assembled to deliver profitable growth. For anyone that hasn't checked out the QTRH website, I strongly suggest you look at the team. There's a lot of fire power that you don't onboard without at least a strong belief, perhaps knowledge, that the business supports it. Just as a reminder, when Paul Hill was CEO and he announced several awards, he acknowledged the bids were in a protest period and still needed contract detail to be worked out - there was a gap of several months before the contracts were officially announced. In order for QTRH to fullfil managemet's revenue vision, substantial and significant award announcements must be made in the near term.
Lastly, your note on insider buying is very powerful. Overall, the comp structure is built to encourage skin in the game.
I'm still positive. Frustration is a function of the long and winding road. So yes, "it's painful" reflected my feelings at the moment, but I'm still very much in.
Your post was a breath of fresh air mrmoribund. Thanks.