Trapped wrote: Great analysis, Quint. And you've nailed it; smaller gassy names have got to be suffering right now and I'm sure there's a number that would like to be put out of their misery, so to speak. If they were to take a shot at something, Crew would be the natural candidate for sure. Part of me wishes they would take out Kelt, but that would be just so I could watch MHP's head explode. He's pumpnig so hard at the moment it's cringe even for him, but that's beside the point.
ARX's management is so disciplined that I'm thinking they'll just stick to the plan and get those 40,000 BOEs/D up and running at Attachie. But having said that, I was shocked when they announced the takeover of VII and is was transformative for the company, so you never know. And ARX has so much strength and experience on their board that they've got to be surveying the landscape.
Time will tell and I'm expecting a steady-as-she-goes earnings release next week.
Finally, the only benefit of being stupidly undervalued at the moment are those 10,000 shares the company is buying and canceling from Monday to Friday every week. The volume may be down from the last NCIB but there's no question this will have been money well spent!
Cheers and GLTA ARX Bulls.
Quintessential1 wrote: While we are waiting for the coming Q2 ER and grind through the summer doldrums which, IMO, considering the combined weight of a very industrious expansion project, decent dividends and moderate buybacks, ARX SP is performing admirably, how about we take a look at shiny things to buy?
Do any of you think the latest slap down of AECO natural gas pricing has unearthed any bargains in the patch that relatively high SP of $23 could take advantage of?
I don't know why but I keep looking over at Crew. Beat down share price, (under $4 as I type), disgruntled shareholders, (at least from what I can tell from their board) and not really any end in sight as they are in the middle of a 4 year plan of expansion that won't provide any results or SP accreation for another 2 years.
For my part I like CR's reserves, just the kind of high liquids to NG that ARX was looking for when they gobbled up VII and their proximity to existing ARX lands are within spitting distances with some lands actually touching as near as I can tell. Anybody that has better intel on that matter feel free to chime in I would appreciate it.
The timing seems pretty good too as like I said ARX is only 10% or so off 52 highs and CR is making new 52 week lows every day so there may be some potential SP leverage there. I am also seeing technical predictions that are showing an under $3 CR SP by this time next year. A long way out for sure but I don't see much making CR's SP climb by then where as ARX's SP should be be experiencing the beginings of increased production levels with Attachie production coming online.
Should ARX avoid the rush and start talks now or just stay the course and organically grow the production as in their expansion plan?
I say take a deal if a deal is out there (and yeah I mean on the cheap). Otherwise stay the course and see if deep pockets want to pick ARX up for their future value that everyone says is being discounted.
Does anybody have any different ideas for an acquisition?
Is ARX still an acquisition target as put forward by RBC this year?
Either way the future looks good here and ARX is still an easy hold for me.
GLTA ARX BULLS