RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:API Inventory:Like I said, "your idea" of the most likey scenerio is "your idea" and not based in fact.
Just like Russia will just annex Crimea and then leave well enough alone. Not.
Just about every former soviet country feels threatened by Russia with the exception of those that have already capitulated like Belarus. Thats why they support Ukraine and ecourage NATO to help them.
WTI in 2018 averaged $65 a barrel with a high of $74 in September and low of $45 in December.
At least we agreed that Kamala is good for oil prices and that is good for Canadian oil producers.
Canadian oil producers like CJ and their investors like us. ;-)
GLTA
VeritasVern wrote: Not that the war is critical for this stock discussion, but the fact Russia is a very large player in the oil space it came up. At any rate one of the factual results is that due to oil and financial sanctions, Russia has just pivoted from supplying the West with oil to the East, making energy more expensive for the West while benefitting the East with cheaper oil.
You are right, I don't know the actual outcome of the war but clearly you mostly have no idea or the least of the most likely scenario. Russia is prepared for a long war, as they cannot allow a defeat as they percieve NATO a direct threat to their existence, which, like it or not is pretty factual for them.
Despite endless billions given to Ukraine, not all is military spending as they have been and are now more so a basket case economy, but more importantly are running out of soldiers. So what happens 1-2 years from now when most of the military age men are injured or dead and fewer are left to man the weapons? At that point Russian has greater barganing power on any agreement. If NATO forces join the war Russia has stated they will resort to tactical nuclear weapons to protect themselves. Perhaps that is why Zelinsky has indicated he may be open for a negotiated deal recently. What happens with the details of that is anyones guess certainly regarding Eastern Ukraine but one thing is certain, Russia will never give up Crimea as it strategically critical for national security and is where their naval fleet is.
WTI was quite variable between 2017-2020 not the implied flat line 60s you reference. But the key observation is that from Jan 2015-Dec 2016, two full years leading into the Trump term, prices were in the 60s and even sub 60s so the starting point was already low prices which is a different scenario where currently we are at $80 oil.
So looking at WTI from Jan 2017 to pre covid 2020 show oil was about $68 Jan 2017, declined for a few months in the $60s range, was $69 in Oct and upward to hit about $92 in June 2018. By Dec 2018 it dropped to about $57 but it must have been the classical BS news related stories because by Feb 2019 is was back up to $71. It then averaged about $70 between April-Dec 2020 and was $75 in Dec 2020. Excluding the short term drop in 2018, there was good reason to drill with prices in the 70s-90 range
I think producers have learned a quite a bit from recent past, have when they can reduced debt and are ready for the consequences of a drill baby scenario. Still I don't think the US has the spare capacity to flood the markets as they are already producing at record levels and the tech gains will not continue to increase production like in recent past.
GLTA