Aecon Group Inc T.ARE

Alternate Symbol(s): AEGXF

Industrials Conglomerates

Aecon Group Inc. is a Canada-based construction and infrastructure development company. The Company delivers integrated solutions to private and public sector clients throughout Canada and other countries. It operates through two segments within the infrastructure development industry: Construction and Concessions. Its Construction segment includes all aspects of the construction of both public and private infrastructure, primarily in Canada, and internationally and focuses primarily on the civil infrastructure, urban transportation solutions, nuclear power infrastructure, utility infrastructure and industrial infrastructure. Its Concessions segment include the development, financing, build and operation of construction projects primarily by way of public-private partnership contract structures, as well as integrating the services of all project participants. The Company’s projects include Annacis Water Supply Tunnel, Bell Canada Gigabit Fiber Service, Finch West LRT, and others.

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Post by Gabrielon Jul 28, 2024 9:07am

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Post# 36151581

Status today

Below is my short term horizon only. I expect higher than that in the next 5 years. I am more confident and assured with the team in place than I have ever been with what I heard and read this week.

Repurchase of up to 3.1m shares will put upward pressure on stock price.
Every day gets us closer to the completion of the LSTK and doubling the backlog which justifies a construction revenue of 4-5B in 2025 at 8% margin for an EBITDA of 320-400m for construction. Margin kept at 8% regardless of collaborative projects. Value of 6 x 320-400 /60m = 32-40$/sh.
Concession had an EBITDA of 95m TTM. Fair to assume 100m for 2025 considering past growth including the 2 airports and others in the pipeline. 6-7.5 x100m/60 =10-12$
FVE 24-48 months = 42-52$ with a mid-point at 47$. We are trading at a third of the fair value in 2025 or 2026.