RE:Think about it..." The primary risk for low oil prices is a recession or a depression, the primary risk higher is a major Middle East war. Which do you think more likely? Do you read the news?"
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No one knows the future, and there are always unintended consequences when there are missiles and bombs flying in the air. But i do read the news and tend to think the opposite. There is absolutely NO desire for a major ME war anywhere, except in one capital; & you know which one. And try as he might, he knows he can't succeed if his major backer refuses to tango.
The Biden/Harris admin is engrossed in a campaign not to lose an election. The last thing they want is to be dragged into a major war by BN who has been a pain enough. They are perfectly content to keep arming and funding two wars where the price in blood and misery is being paid by others: Palestinians and Ukrainians. Paying for wars by printing dollars and adding to debt has become part of their DNA. The MI Complex is content as long as there are no returning body bags.
Iran, which has long been trying to repair its economy from the pain of unending sanctions, knows it has a lot more to lose if its cities and infratrusture get bombed. It has no air force to speak of and limited air defence. It has an impressive arsenal of land based missiles & other lethal projectiles but it is not likely to use them rashly. It certainly would resist being goaded into an inopportune response by BN's "escalation dominance". Besides they have other options in their Axis partners.
BN will probably blunder into Lebanon and do untold damage to civilian infrastucture and Lebanese lives. Lloyd Austin has already assured him of the usual war supplies. But Hizballah, who cannot be wiped out, any more than Hamas, may have their own ideas.
To your other point, I think we are already in a recession and the bankers will soon be stepping out and taking bows for having managed a "soft landing".
All of the above notwithstanding TVE will do fine with $70-$80 WTI give or take.
Cheers