RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Cad : USD Fair enough we all have our own beliefs.
My concern is the following:
Sahm rule triggered - check
yield curve almost disinverting- check
savings rate at historic lows - check
frothy stock market - check
Fed close to cutting rates - check
US hiring below pre-pandemic - check
US quit rates falling - check
initial claims trending higher - check
continued claims higher - check
Fed late to cut - check
banks aren't lending - check
These generally all occur just prior to a recession. I'll side with history on this one as I think the probability of a hard landing is certainly elevated. Especially if the Fed doesn't cut aggressively on the way down. I think it's more important than ever to have a well diversified portfolio to overcome this volatility in the markets.