RE:RE:Oil trading I think this is a timely point to repost the graph of election year analysis I did last November.
Specifically interested in what could cause the current trend to reverse. I'm having a hard time seeing anything to suggest now is the time to jump in or buy more, other than the recent sell off.
Here's my list of negatives that suggest continuation of the trend...
- The drums of war that recently increased due to the Iran assasination may start to recover. Although we will certainly see some sort of Iran retaliation, I don't think Iran will take the bait and jump into an all out war. That being said, there are powers in Washington pushing for it (eg, Lindsay Graham advocating an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran oil refineries).
- WIth recent market turmoil and employment numbers, it's pretty much a given the US Fed will make a rate cut. Question now is only by how much. Depending how media frames the cut I think it could be good or bad for the price of oil. No matter what the Fed does however, I think the window of a positive effect by the US election has been lost.
- If Kamala support plummets (which I think it will) what will the democrats do? Will they pull her and install an alternate candidate in September? The back peddling on a presedential debate is telling.
- We're heading into the fall which generally carries a negative psychological effect for market corrections.
- Olympic insanity and UK in turmoil further highlighting how unhinged Europe and the world has become. Canada issuing a travel advisory regarding UK (Seriously... the UK? This is whack?!). Is anyone making international travel plans considering the global turmoil and airline flight fiascos?
baranja wrote: So when war drums start, oil start going up,.. after Biden call it off and doesn't want to go to war, we ne have oil going back down,.. Sick people those are.
baranja wrote:
Just take a look at what those "deep state" actors and bankers did to oil and gas trading. They created an eviroment that, only if there is a war, oil goes up, but if there is no war, the oil crashes. They are creating blood thirsty people out of all oil investors.
This is all purposlly done.