RE:RE:RE:RE:Steady as she goes Q2Wow, very enticing stuff on the analyst front. And I haven't seen that net debt projection before. Incredibly solid!
So, yeah, it's a bit of a waiting game until Q1 2025, but the SP is holding up well in a fairly volatile market. My guess is smart institutional investors and astute retail observers know exactly what's around the corner.
Cheers and GLTA ARX bulls!
Quintessential1 wrote: Yeah I never minded poo pot pumping (even though he droned on a lot) but when his swing trade swung and he was bashing he droned on even more and continuously and quite frankly nobody likes to hear about their investment doing poorly even when it is just a pull back or it is consolidating. Reading his english (yeah I suspect it is his second language and as so he gets some leeway) is like nails on a chalkboard. If you are going to post that much download grammerly and use it. Funny that his board seems to have taken a dislike to his pumping. Maybe he needs better pom poms? Sis boom bah!
Anyway back to our stock. I really liked this from the CIBC Equity Research:
" Price Target Calculation Our 12- to 18-month price target of $34.00 is based on a target 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 6.0x on CIBC base commodity price forecasts.
We estimate net debt (including lease obligations) of $711MM in 2025E. Our price target represents 0.9x our risked NAV on our CIBC base commodity price forecasts."
I have seen no buybacks yet for July but they have until August 10 to report them so we'll see.
Here are some more pom poms from Equity Research:
"Return of capital poised to accelerate in 2025 as Attachie spending moderates to sustaining capital. ARC outspent cash flow during Q2/24, which was expected. On our revised estimates, we expect ARC will generate $1.2B in post-dividend free cash flow for 2025, which we believe provides room for a dividend increase and meaningful share repurchases."
GLTY and ALL ARX BULLS
Trapped wrote: Great points, Quint. And lol, I think the KEL SH community is more sick of NoMoneyBot than the ARX bulls ever were. He's pumping so hard right now..
On a separate note, has anyone got wind of ARX's July buybacks? I'm away and haven't seen anything yet.
Quintessential1 wrote: "This will drive a re-rate, just not for a few quarters. I'm good with the dividend and modest buybacks in the meantime."
You're not alone here Trapped. Here is what CIBC Capital Markets had to say:
"We view the commissioning of Attachie as a catalyst for the stock, driving a step-change in free cash flow for 2025. We expect ARC will increase its shareholder returns once Attachie is online, through dividend growth and/or share buybacks."
Personally, I , like you, was disappointed with the lack of a dividend increase with the last ER. It is pretty obvious now to see that that was a necessary action in order to keep the balance sheet healthy given lower production and higher cap-ex guidence. I, like you, know that this management knows what it is doing and it has proven it again in the way the share price has weathered this low commodity pricing, lower productivity storm. When we come out of the other side of this tempest better than we ever were we will be happy to have had them as the steady hands on the tiller of the HMS ARX.
Now if you want to see an example of disatisfied passengers on a cruise ship, swim over to the KEL boat where their cruise director poo pot posted this:
" I think Kelt has been a bit of a value trap, however the value will soon be realized. "
Well I don't think ARX has been ever been anywhere near a value trap and the value just keeps on getting realised year after year after year. This year should be no different.
GLTA ARX BULLS