A look ahead to Full Year 2024
US$
| 2024 | Analyst Consensus Full Year | Actual Results H1-24 | What must be realized in H2-24 to meet annual consensus | Comments (IMHO) |
| Revenue | 151.67 | 70.7 | 80.97 | Likely meet expectation |
| ESP | (0.31) | (0.43) | 0.12 | Difficult (but still a chance) to meet expectation which requires Largo to realize $7.7M in net earnings in H2. |
Q3-24 will be another challenging quarter if V prices do not improve. We are almost halfway through the Q and the current average price for the V2O5 benchmark = US$5.9/lb. The Ilmenite new revenue stream will help but too little to make a real difference (In Q2-24 Ilmenite sales revenue = $196 x 12,261T = US$2.4M with a 50% gross margin). So let’s write Q3-24 off as another red quarter. However there is light at the end of the tunnel as the market expects a strong V rebounce thanks mainly to the new mandatory Chinese rebar quality standard (GB1499.2-2024) which will take effect on September 25, 2024. Therefore Q4-24 looks very bright. I do expect Q4-24 to be Green. How Green will depend on the following 4 key catalysts are:
1 Speed/intensity of the V recovery
2 Successful venture with Stryten Energy
3 Increase of Ilmenite sale prices as our quality gets better
4 Hiring of a big name as permanent CEO
DYODD