RE:RE:Evolve Q2My thoughts:
1. I assume that overall sales for this type of security solution is on an upward trajectory. I know that not everyone might agree with that assumption, but in my opinion this smarter and faster screening/security is sorely needed (especially in the US where gun control is very limited) and besides AI is the way everything will go eventually.
2. On the Q1 earnings call, Evolv describes a lengthening of their sales cycles due to regulatory issues with the FTC (customers taking longer to make purchase decisions, testing other suppliers). On the Q2 call, they maintain that sales cycles are elongated and they describe competitors "weaponizing" these issues against them (thinking that might be Xtract they are alluding to).
3. To me this seems like Xtract is eating into Evolv's business. Especially considering Peter Evans' various optimistic comments on the growth trajectory to continue, I don't think Xtract is facing the same issues as Evolv (rather the opposite). Say what you will about Peter Evans but he has delivered on pretty much everything but the share price and to me actually seems to be a bit conservative in some of his estimates (he often overdelivers), so i am inclined to trust him. Share price is not something he can control short-term - over time share price will reflect the intrinsic value of the business.