Scoping of NPV5 After tax @ $2200 POGA quick listing of the 2022 FS Results first..
POG = $1750
Annual Production = 50,000 ounces
LOM = 5 years
AISC = $912 US per ounce
CAPEX $80 m
Breakeven = $1115 US per ounce ( $1350 CAD per ounce @ $2200 US POG in free cash flow
NPV5 after tax = $103 m
Increasing the POG to $2200 Resulted in NPV5 after tax of $176 m
Estimated Chnages in Caeex Costs
$25 million less as no cost of Nuggett Pond Mill
$15 million less as no Xray Separator, housing and crew
Total Savings $40 millinn
Adjusted NPV5 After tax = $176 + $40 m = $216 million
Adjustment for Increased Production ..higher recovery / 5 % gain due to no Separator = 4000 ounces per year X 5 = 20,000 ounces times ( 2200 - $1115 ) X 1.35 = 329 m
Adjusted NPV5 After tax for increased Production = $216 + $29 m = $245 million
So, $245 million would have been the NPV5 afterXray Tax, had the POG been $2200 US and the Pine Cove Mill replacing the Nugget Pond mill and no separator .
But, the Updated FS will include Stoger, Orion and 3 other deposits plus additional drilling succcess inj 2022=23 .
Very conservativly, I estimate another two years production at 54,000 ounces per year.
This increases the LOM free cash by $145 million CAD ( 108,000 ounces times $1350 per ounce ) which elevates the NPV5 after tax to $245 m + $145 m = $390 m CAD
Returning to the 2022 FS , it was stated that fair value was 0.75 times NAV and financing would occur at 0.4 times NAV per share.
That is , Fair value of about $290 million cad which @ 100 m shares including 15 m shares for equity raise , is about $2.90 per share .
Financing would be at about $1.20 per share ( 40 % of $2.90 ) or 12 cents pre split..
POG is now nearly $300 US above $2200 US.
The above estimates could be very conservative, if POG remains at that level.
This is as good as I can do with current information.
If the input parameters remain close to those used above , it should be realistic
AIMHO
GLTA