TSX:AX.PR.E - Post by User
Comment by
Torontojayon Aug 21, 2024 12:35pm
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Post# 36190072
RE:Birth/death
RE:Birth/death Torontojay wrote: The non farms payroll uses the birth/death model to come up with the bogus jobs number data. It is estimated that the "fudge" factor added about 1 million fake jobs in 2023.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages provides a more comprehensive review of the jobs data as the sample size is much larger than the NFP. There is a significant divergence between the NFP data and the more accurate QCEW data.
The birth/death model is flawed because it uses lagging indicators and extrapolates them in the present. The general consensus is that it doesn't capture turning points in the economy until further revisions are made down the road.
Don't trust any data source that uses the birth/death model in its computation. This is one of the reasons why the NBER can take 1 year to date a recession because of revisions that are consistently made throughout the year.
Fellow Economist Daniele DiMartino believes the recession started in October of 2023 and that further revisions made will make it clear that the recession has already started.
The non farms payroll uses the birth/death model to come up with the bogus jobs number data. It is estimated that the "fudge" factor added about 1 million fake jobs in 2023.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages provides a more comprehensive review of the jobs data as the sample size is much larger than the NFP. There is a significant divergence between the NFP data and the more accurate QCEW data.
The birth/death model is flawed because it uses lagging indicators and extrapolates them in the present. The general consensus is that it doesn't capture turning points in the economy until further revisions are made down the road.
Don't trust any data source that uses the birth/death model in its computation. This is one of the reasons why the NBER can take 1 year to date a recession because of revisions that are consistently made throughout the year.
Fellow Economist Daniele DiMartino believes the recession started in October of 2023 and that further revisions made will make it clear that the recession has already started.