RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Target CEO says the consumer remains resilientWhat I do "see" is a rolling recession. Some sectors, like commercial real estate, continue to feel pain. Some retailers are struggling and others are hitting it out of the park. You mentioned Reitmans being dead the other day. Reitmans is not the market but since you used a retailer as a metric, I like to use Costco. Costco is the best of the best. The Costco near me is a zoo... always. There'e a steady line-up of people entering and exiting all the time. It's insane. Costco is not the market either but it illustrates my point that we have a rolling recession in sectors and even moreso down to certain business names.
Torontojay wrote: I disagree Flamingo. In Canada the hard landing is happening right now. I'm very surprised you don't even see it. It takes at least a year to announce a recession after all the revisions are in place. The unemployment rate is already 1.5% higher than its lows and it typically reaches an average of 3% from trough to peak. In other words, Canada is already halfway there. The Sahm rule triggers a recession when the 3 month average unemployment rate is 50 bps above its lows over a 12 month period and Canada has already triggered this rule.
In terms of gdp per capita ( the me-recession) we've been in one for 2 consecutive years.