RE:RE:RE:RE:Technical analysis on Aecon - enjoy the video
Dibah420 wrote: Gabriel wrote: Dear Ron and fellow shareholders, i would love your comments on the value investors analysis posted yesterday. Thank you in advance.
Well Gabriel, the discussion seems to have been distracted by that other video with a hilarious commentary, so I will try and respond to your request. And btw the allusions to NVDA were equally hilarious and I might add, irrelevant.
As to the VI Analysis posted (whose author is not named) it is not dissimilar in its style to your own contributions here and evoked a deja vu.
While I found it excellent reading it also reminded me that in order to reach certain projected targets, all the ducks have to get in line and that seldom happens the way we plan. But when it does happen, it happens when and how we least expect it.
Likewise, on the negative side, it would be nice to see some quanta on the "Risk" side but that would be too difficult a task. Such events can hit us out of the blue as we saw this summer with the arbritration settlement.
In the meantime I am quite content to sit back, enjoy the dividend and be educated about the mysteries of the market and this company.
Cheers.
With reference to aligning the ducks: We have in my opinion the co-founder (this is his life-time legacy and that of his parents) and likely the most experienced construction administrator as chairman supported by a very carefully chosen, broadly experienced and diverse board members covering most all spectrums management needs. The C-suite team is equally impressive and I am not being indulgent in any shape or form. I have graduated over twenty PhDs in engineering and have advised on numerous billion-dollar scale construction projects worldwide, so I am not saying this lightly. All this to say this: While I fully agree with your lucid statement, if these folks cannot align the ducks, I am not sure who can.
With reference to the CGL settlement and risks: Our share of the settlement from CGL (we were suing for 1.1B as 50% partner) was expected to be about 100m more than what i assume we had shown in our unbilled revenue or receivables ~ 100m more than what we settled for. Note that I am not sure but this is what I think with the elements in hand. This said, management said during Q1 in March 2024 that they have implemented thorough procedure to prevent this from happening including not bidding on these similar contracts (1B and up) as lump sum. I am more than confident that the risk management committee or whatever it is called within Aecon is overseeing the whole project selection, bidding and execution process. Risks need to be identified at all stages, their likelihood estimated and documented, mitigation measures identified and detailed, worse-case scenarios quantified and equally detailed with risk sharing or transfer mechanisms evaluated and used as necessary. Collaborative projects address this.