Trying to be positiveI went back and listened to the 7/10/24 conference call and wrote down the reasons why I should stay invested in THTX and for how much longer. I just don't know if any of these are enough to bring this once was "high flyer" out of the punitive landscape they've created.
1. Th-1902 is fully recruited and 6 patients have completed a full cycle. Need two CT scans in a row after 2nd cycle showing stable disease or tumor reduction to have confirmation of something monetizable. 4 months for FDA to review. Should have some read in fall. That starts next month. Still a complete loterry tickets. Said lots of companies anxiously waiting to see...
2. Most meetings from last conference were regarding acquiring another asset. They specifically said hope to have more info shortly...as if something was in the works. I don't think anything is in the works, and they should have simply said, we are hopeful we'll be able to identify, quantify, and bring one of these opportunities to the table. Lot's of hope that fizzled over the years. Seems to me that it would have to be a fairly creative revenue share structure and likely not a very good asset.
3. Still have goal to get approval of new Tesamorelin before end of FY. I think it's been discussed here this likely won't make much of a difference financially, but it must mean something. I believe it was part of the Marathon loan structure too that was later modified. It seems that it might matter at least a little if they do get it approved.
Sure seems to me if there's no movement by year-end on either of these strategic fronts, that the best we can hope for is a stabilized positive EBITDA, recognized by the market at a higher value. And even then, it's going to be fairly difficult to exit large positions on such low volume. I guess we'll just have to be slow and methodical if and when that time comes. Right now, I still don't feel like it's worth selling for what little I would recover. Might as well see what happens with TH-1902 and likely wait a whole heck of a lot longer to recover our losses no matter the outcome.