RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:market movementClearly one month of data does not represent the total annual demand. My understanding is oil is somewhat inelastic so expect some larger purchases in the next several months.
The early Aug short-term energy outlook from the EIA says this:
We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d in 2025; the latter is 0.2 million b/d less than in our previous STEO. Nearly all of our expected liquid fuels demand growth is from non-OECD countries, which increase their liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.4 million b/d in 2025.
We reduced our forecast of petroleum consumption growth in China for 2024 and 2025 because of slower economic activity as well as updated monthly statistics showing reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and crude oil refinery runs in China. China’s GDP for 2Q24 grew 4.7% from last year, slightly less than the government’s 5% target, reflecting slower investment in the country’s real estate and construction sectors. We now forecast consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow in China by about 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and in 2025, which would be less than the 2015–2019 average growth rate of 0.5 million b/d.
We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d in 2025; the latter is 0.2 million b/d less than in our previous STEO. Nearly all of our expected liquid fuels demand growth is from non-OECD countries, which increase their liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.4 million b/d in 2025.
We reduced our forecast of petroleum consumption growth in China for 2024 and 2025 because of slower economic activity as well as updated monthly statistics showing reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and crude oil refinery runs in China. China’s GDP for 2Q24 grew 4.7% from last year, slightly less than the government’s 5% target, reflecting slower investment in the country’s real estate and construction sectors. We now forecast consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow in China by about 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and in 2025, which would be less than the 2015–2019 average growth rate of 0.5 million b/d.