RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:market movementYou're right! One month doesn't represent a year's demand but don't forget that these are futures traders and they can take one month and project it for a year or for the next year especially if the economic numbers coming out of China don't look like they are recovering.
I also noted that that report was showing Imported fuel oil but petroleum products are petroleum products and they add in to the total.
It does kind of make me wonder who is supplying China's fuel oil and why China would use fuel oil as a refinery feed stock instead of crude unless it lets them buy from wherever they want without worrying about oil grades.
Also these are futures so if they expected China's growth to be larger and then the data shows smaller but still growth it still reduces future demand from what they were expecting and their future oil price targets with them. But I know you know this.
As far as CJ is concerned, everyday forward is another day closer to derisked, lower cost, increased oil production and this oil price level should be good enough to get that job done. Hopefull that oil comes online just in time to see China's economic recovery.
GLTY and all
VeritasVern wrote: Clearly one month of data does not represent the total annual demand. My understanding is oil is somewhat inelastic so expect some larger purchases in the next several months.
The early Aug short-term energy outlook from the EIA says this:
We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d in 2025; the latter is 0.2 million b/d less than in our previous STEO. Nearly all of our expected liquid fuels demand growth is from non-OECD countries, which increase their liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.4 million b/d in 2025.
We reduced our forecast of petroleum consumption growth in China for 2024 and 2025 because of slower economic activity as well as updated monthly statistics showing reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and crude oil refinery runs in China. China’s GDP for 2Q24 grew 4.7% from last year, slightly less than the government’s 5% target, reflecting slower investment in the country’s real estate and construction sectors. We now forecast consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow in China by about 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and in 2025, which would be less than the 2015–2019 average growth rate of 0.5 million b/d.
We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d in 2025; the latter is 0.2 million b/d less than in our previous STEO. Nearly all of our expected liquid fuels demand growth is from non-OECD countries, which increase their liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.4 million b/d in 2025.
We reduced our forecast of petroleum consumption growth in China for 2024 and 2025 because of slower economic activity as well as updated monthly statistics showing reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and crude oil refinery runs in China. China’s GDP for 2Q24 grew 4.7% from last year, slightly less than the government’s 5% target, reflecting slower investment in the country’s real estate and construction sectors. We now forecast consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow in China by about 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and in 2025, which would be less than the 2015–2019 average growth rate of 0.5 million b/d.