Laurentian Bank of Canada T.LB

RE:RE:cibc flash research: target C$28

[nedstar71]

Somewhat tough to take you too seriously considering you were saying the same thing about CWB less than two weeks before National bank announcd its intention to acquire it at a 100%+ premium.  Would be pretty unfortunate if your posts there influenced anyone to sell and miss out on the more than double.  Is Laurentian good?  Of course not.  But the potential for it to be scooped up for a minimum of $35+ is certainly there and the dividend is fat and more than covered.  Very good spec play here with a fairly high yield and much more potential upside than downside.  My smallest position, but still a position.

Canadian Western Bank> I Have Said for A long Time

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Post by DeanEdmontonon May 31, 2024 8:28am

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Post# 36065926

I Have Said for A long Time

This place is badlly managed. It trades at a discount for a very good reason. People keep buying it on the reversion to mean arguement, and keep losing their butts. Same arguements are used by those buying Laurentian, with the same results. NEVER buy the worst run companies in a sector

DeanEdmonton wrote: Results couldn't be a lot worse. Rising expenses, shrinking loans and deposit along with no evidence of a trun around from the NEW CEO and Execs. About par for the course with this Bank over the past 40 years, but worse over the past 10 years. They seem to be trying to shrink their way to greatness.

I sure feel sorry for anyone who is holding onto this stocklong term. Outside of short term trading on the buck or two swings, not much upside.

perplexed01 wrote: FQ3 First Look: Nothing To Show A Turnaround

Our take: Neutral. LB reported a modest EPS beat, mostly on the release of performing credit allowances. PTPP of $68MM was effectively in line with the consensus estimate of $69MM.

Overview of results: Adjusted EPS came in at .88 versus consensus of .86 and our estimate of .84. Adjusted ROE was 6.2%, unchanged from last quarter. Book value per share was $56.97, increasing only 0.3% sequentially due to impairment and severance charges.

Sources of variance: Positive sources of variance relative to our estimate include higher capital markets related revenue (CMRR) (+.14/sh) and lower PCLs (+.05/sh). This was partially offset by higher operating expenses (-.10/sh) and lower lending NII (-.04/sh).

Total PCLs helped by performing release: Total PCLs were $16.3MM (18bps), better than our estimate of $19.0MM (21bps) and lower than FQ2 at $17.9MM (20bps). Performing provisions were negative $11.8MM (release) and impaired provisions were essentially flat sequentially at $28.1MM.

NII lower on lower AEA: Lending NII came in at $181MM, up <1% sequentially and ~1% below our forecast. NIM was flat Q/Q and AEA declined ~1% in total.

Loans decline across all categories: Total gross loans and acceptances declined 3.3% Q/Q. Commercial loans declined 3.9%, personal loans declined 5.3% and residential mortgages declined 2.4%.

Operating leverage remains negative: Total expenses of $188MM increased 5% Y/Y. Adjusted operating leverage came in at negative 7%. The bank reported another restructuring charge in the quarter, as expected. Charges totalled $9MM versus $7MM expected and down from $156MM last quarter.

Deposits decline: Total deposits declined 5.2% Q/Q, worse than -1.9% in FQ2. Demand deposits declined 3.8% versus a 5.7% decline in FQ2. Term deposits declined 5.7% Q/Q, versus flat in FQ2.

CET1 ratio: Reported CET1 was 10.9%, up from 10.4% last quarter.