RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:cj is falling below $6,50"Quinte I have no idea what you are talking about. I never said the future is not as high as expected - you are the one saying that. I said the current and future demand is higher than expected -- because GDP in China is +4.5% while in the US its +3.0 and therefore oil demand should not be declining much or should be gaining. In fact the EIA, IEA etc all have positive global demand growth for 2024 and 2025. Slightly less than in previous forecasts but still positive growth. " Less than in previous forecasts = less future growth than expected = lower futures pricing.
"In my view I wouldn't rule out that there is a political bias" Is quite a pullback from "Politics is driving the markets NOT fundamentals." Also: " democracy is on the ballot" WTF does that mean? The fact that there is a ballot means there is democracy.
Don't tell me you are a Biden-election-win denier too?
LOL. Stick to CJ and provable facts. You have yet to post any.
GLTA GLTY and all
VeritasVern wrote: Quinte I have no idea what you are talking about. I never said the future is not as high as expected - you are the one saying that. I said the current and future demand is higher than expected -- because GDP in China is +4.5% while in the US its +3.0 and therefore oil demand should not be declining much or should be gaining. In fact the EIA, IEA etc all have positive global demand growth for 2024 and 2025. Slightly less than in previous forecasts but still positive growth.
I do forecasting for a living I know exactly how that is done. The central premise is using data, and fundamentals to help determine a forecast that has the highest probability to happen. That said I can also give you a bearish forecast and give the rationale for that if that is what is needed...
In the case of oil, there is a deliberate bias to drive down inflation and central to that is the price of oil. Why, because any and almost every bullish data set that comes out such as large oil inventory declines for example, is dismissed and the focus shifts to speculation of a slowdown or forecast that were too high, possibly intentional, and then used as the rationale to drive down oil prices. So job growth in the US was not as high as expected, but the unemployment rate still declined and that justifies a 2-3% or more retraction in the price of oil.
In my view I wouldn't rule out that there is a political bias, democracy is on the ballot afterall and anything goes to perserve that.