RE:Price ActionWe've had posters bemoan that if Aris hadn't reverse take over of GCM the share price would be C$10 by now. I say emphatically:
NO it would not. The reason is mining shares are in an 18-year Bear market relative to Gold itself. Back in the hey day of miners (2003-2008), the HUI index would be 50% of Gold in points. Hence, Gold at $700 and the HUI 350. Gold at $1000, HUI 500. Today's environment is extremely divergent. Take a look at this chart:
25-Year Chart HUI to Gold Ratio YTD perfomance in Gold is 22%. The HUI is up 21%, YTD. Aris Mining is up 31%. Aris is in the top 10% performers this year in the sector, having a return that is 50% higher than the HUI. The reason is production is growing for 2025 and 2026. At the end of 2026, Gold production will be over 130% higher than 2024. I believe you need perspective when it comes to Aris. The HUI has fallen from 325 to 293 during the same time Aris has pulled back.
The mining equity malaise is still in tact despite a $2500 Gold price. All the market is willing to give miners is the value increase of their resources and nothing else. This is why Gold the metal and the mining equities are about the same. Gold up 20% should result in 40% increase in mining equities, historically speaking. Hence, the HUI should be at 340 today and not 293. Sprott this year has said mining equities are the cheapest relative to Gold going all the way back to $300 Gold.
I believe someday new money will enter the sector and reward mining equity holders. One just has to wonder will it take $3000 Gold to do it.