RE:at current dollar bent Not sure how you arrived at 20%... it's more like 10 to 11% at $72 Brent.
OPEX is about $28. SGA about $2. CAPEX about $16. That leaves $26 without Royalties and Taxes factored in.
Less 11% of $72 for Royalties about $8 and 25% after expenses for Taxes (72-8-28-2=34x.25~8) about $8. Knock off another $16.
That leaves $10 FCF.
Revenue and Royalties all decrease by approximately 18% (72/87=.82) from last report. Taxes decrease by about 25%.
Applying those reductions to last report brings CFO down to about $24. Less $16 CAPEX leaves $8 FCF.
These numbers are rough and assumes expenses remain the same. I would expect expenses to rise with inflation and with lower oil on the horizon we're looking at $5 FCF.
Not great.
Do the math, Carbon. Base your calculations on last report and see what you get. FCF is about 11% at this level based on an $8 return.