2023 delivered Q3 + Q4 (almost 1 per day)1st: BBD delivered during Q4 2023 a total of 56 planes, in December more then 28 in only 28 days, yes in only 28 days, meaning 1 per day. Thats a ''normal'' December work for BBD, like ''business as usual''. The Market (professionnals and advices investors) know that for years.
2nd: BBD delivered during Q3 a total of 31 planes (19 were ''exported'' on September 21th and a total of 25 were ''exported'' on September 29th).
3rd: Thats mean BBD delivered 87 planes on the 2nd half of that year.
4th: They delivered 51 planes on the 1st half of 2023, for a total of 138 for 2023.
5th: They delivered 59 planes on the 1st half of this year 2024 (8 more then 2023, so far)
6th: We all know that they deliver more planes in Q4 (56) then the Q1 + Q2 (51) 2023.
7th: If, and only if, BBD delivered only 31 planes in Q3 2024, for a total of 90 planes delivered in 2024 so far, THEN they have to delivered ''only'' 4 more planes then 2023 Q4 (60 for 2024 Vs 56 in 2023)
8th: BUT, so far they were able to delivered 8 more planes in the 1st half of this 2024 year compare with 2023 they only need to delivered 4 more planes for the entire 2nd half of the year (Q3 + Q4) to reach, at least 150 planes ( 150 - 90 = 60 needed in Q4 2024 VS 56 planes delivered in Q4 2023).
9th: NO news on the contrary, NO information about any delay, they maintain the target of 150 (the no problem at all to achieve) to 155 (reasonable because of the production they already done, all those planes are finish and ready to go, the tests fly already schedule before December (because this month is mostly for the Q1 2025 planes to delivered) , December its a huge delivered month, the capacity to delivered 8 more in 2024 then 2023 the 2nd half year as been proof with the delivered make in the 1st half of the year so far, ...
10th: FOUR MORE PLANES IN Q3 + Q4 2024 VS 2023 AND THEY GOING TO DO IT , MAKING THE 150 DELIVERED IN 2024 VS 138 IN 2024, yes, only 4 to go, thats the real number
FINAL: Im prettty sure they will be able to delivered 8 in Q3 + Q4 2024 more then 2023 as they were able to do it in this 1st half of the year...so, my conservative prediction : 154 planes delivered in 2024
GOOD LUCK ALL LONG!!!!!