TSX:AX.PR.E - Post by User
Post by
Torontojayon Sep 10, 2024 5:25pm
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Post# 36217488
2 year treasury/Sahm and Yield curve
2 year treasury/Sahm and Yield curve Is at the same level as November of 2007 where it was just above 5% in June of that year. Fast forward to today and the 2 year treasury is at 3.607% which is down from ~ 5% in April of this year. The Fed funds is currently at 5.33% which compares to 5.25% in 2007.
The Sahm number is at 0.57 which is higher than April of 2008 but lower than May. Keep in mind the US was already in recession during the GFC when the Sahm number was triggered.
The yield curve did inverted in April and June of 2007 and today it has already disinverted in September.
Putting all of this together, I would say that when the Nber backdates this recession sometime next year, they will likely say it has already started by late summer/fall of 2024.