The market has pronounced a winner from Tuesday’s debate Financial markets early Wednesday were moving in a way consistent with a reduced likelihood of a second Donald Trump presidency.
Though a key inflation report was looming, cross-asset movements suggested who traders believed had won.
U.S. stock futures ES00 -0.26% were modestly lower.
The dollar fell vs. major rivals, particularly the Japanese yen USDJPY -0.62%
Bitcoin BTCUSD -1.78% slumped by 2%.
Trump Media and Technology DJT, which tends to move in line with the likelihood of Trump winning the presidency, skidded 18% in premarket trade.
“So far, the dollar is weaker across the board, with AsiaFX outperforming and U.S. equity futures showing signs of softness. This aligns with the opinion polls suggesting that Harris edged Trump in the first presidential debate,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, echoed that analysis. “With the dust settling on the Trump vs Harris presidential debate, it’s clear that the market saw this debate going to Kamala Harris,” he said, adding the endorsement of Harris by pop star Taylor Swift also was a help to the Democratic candidate.
He said prediction markets like PredictIt offered a loose guide to market players. The betting odds aggregator site Election Betting Odds has Harris with a 51.8% to 47% lead.
“Let’s also not forget that if Harris does ultimately get up, the less market-friendly tax hikes are unlikely to pass, as the Senate will highly likely go the way of the Republicans and so passing the more contentious policies will be problematic,” Weston said.