CSW Energy Summary for Sept. 10, 2024 2024-09-10 20:01 ET - Market Summary
by Stockwatch Business Reporter
Lurk & Learns: <Stanley's Comments>: When certain people who might be associated with "stablemates" (recall Murray Pezim? back in the VSE haydays); while the correlation migh not be even remotely close to relevant, sometime the word "playbook" might be worth the time that lurk and learns might want to devote to advance their own analysis, with potential replication ("laglee" in Trini speak) being their overriding consideration.
Also being aware of the key "compare and contrast" headders items.
If anything is connected, may be that Alvopetro's announcement if closely followed by that of Touchstone's.
Might even make the timing of Domus's speculation of TXP's Operational Update worth noting.>
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Further afield, Corey Ruttan and John Wright's Brazilian gas producer, Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (ALV), edged down one cent to $5.09 on 25,000 shares.
It released a monthly operational update last night and pegged its sales for August at 1,900 barrels of oil equivalent a day. This is down from 2,400 barrels a day in July, a decrease that Alvopetro blamed -- as usual -- on "temporary demand disruptions" from Bahiagas. <vis a vis TXP's niche market and/plus the timing of Methanex's restart>
Bahiagas is the local distributor to which Alvopetro sells gas under a contract that is partly firm, partly interruptible (or non-guaranteed above a certain volume).
Up until mid-2023, Alvopetro enjoyed relatively stable sales to Bahiagas, but then they began to fluctuate dramatically, from as low as 1,600 barrels a day to as high as 2,800.
This unpredictability is one of the reasons for the stock's equally dramatic fall toward $5 from a mid-2023 peak of nearly $11. Virtually all of the gas comes from the 56-per-cent-owned Cabure field.
In an attempt to bolster confidence, president and CEO Mr. Ruttan made sure that yesterday's update included some hype for what he sees as a promising up-and-comer, <expansion of wells at the Cascadura complex> the wholly owned Murucututu field.
A sizable production boost from this field could arrive by the end of the month,<expansion of wells from 2 (to date) to 4(by the end of this month?) to 6 (Q1 2025) at the Cascadura complex> he hinted. He continued in this vein during a boosterish interview published yesterday on the [paid promotional message] website.
"We've got some exciting activity [at Murucututu] literally happening as we speak," he cheered. Success will provide the "recipe ... [for a] multiyear development program." For good measure, Mr. Ruttan also addressed the fluctuating sales to Bahiagas, saying Alvopetro is negotiating to get the contract to include more guaranteed volumes. This should ensure "a lot more stability."
For context, the exciting current activity at Murucututu comprises recompletions of two wells that were already drilled years ago.
The source of Mr. Ruttan's excitement is that Alvopetro owns the wells -- and Murucututu -- 100 per cent, whereas its share of Cabure's production is only about half.
For further context, the above [paid promotional message] website, although it bills itself as a provider of "business and finance news content," seems primarily to provide PR services -- an impression solidified by the remarks peppered throughout the interview with Mr. Ruttan, from "Good stuff" to "Congratulations on the success." A disclaimer on the website notes that Alvopetro is a "paid client."
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BWDIK? The next Operational Update promises to validate the "proof of concept" wrt the onshore gas production in volumes that replicated in the paleo depositional fairway that extends at least down to BG & FG.
GLTAL GLAP Caveat Emptor
Cheers
Stanley