I want you to watch this new clip with Claudia Sahm
So I'm going to repeat myself here again for what, the umpteenth time? For awhile now, things just haven't acted/reacted as they normally may have. There are a number of "rules" and "guidelines" that once shown to have occured we would otherwise have entered into a recession. There has been calls now going on three years that the U.S. will imminently be in recession, only thing is, they haven't, at least not yet (the old broken clock cliche comes to mind). What to make of all this? I have my theories but won't bore you the details, save and accept for, I personally also do believe the U.S. is headed there and will get there, just not right yet. I believe there is/was still just too much stimulus/liquidity in the sytstem to allow this, along with a number of other unusual factors. This of course harkens the trillion dollar question of how much more debt can the U.S. government take on before the bond vigalantes show up, at which point rates take a fairly steep upward bias, but thats a story for another day. I posted early this year that the markets will melt up into the election and thus far this has pretty much played out. I think things likely may finally come to roost after that, moreover perhaps early into next year, we will see.
The clip here is from CNBC and interviews Claudia Sahm (yes, the Sahm rule) that was just another of many "rules" that just didn't quite get it right. Not to say it won't, just didn't, yet! Reference is also made of the inversion of the yeild curve but won't rehash that in fear of raising the ire of certain members here that enjoy to chastise me. In any event, just another tid bit to keep tucked in the back of your minds. I am still fighting the good fight as to when ultimately to give a significant trim to my reit portfolio, won't happen right away but there will come a time. Once we get some real real storm clouds, you will know. Good luck in the meant time. Clip link below.
Stay good,
DZ
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/09/13/u-s-economy-is-not-in-a-recession-right-now-says-former-fed-economist-claudia-sahm.html