Weekend update, hello Interesting to see the analysts price predictions.
As was pointed out, a general set of numbers all not far from each other.
Mid range being in the $5+ / share.
also pointed out & quite important to understand, very little promotion from the various analysts.
A few higher level pieces of background needed to understand the reports, their significance & analysts input in general.
First the reports.
All oF the analysts .when they issue a 12 month target , provide very detailed justification for those numbers.
Some are broader & deeper than others.
One similarity, is the present value, risk adjusted discount of future potential earnings.
meaning they draw the assumption that Pela gets to market. Then using avaible data, come up with projected sales & profits.
With that time line & product acceptance risk, they then apply a discount to the potential future value.
i have not seen a detailed report in months. The last one I did see was using a 30% presnt value.
Meaning the actual number could be more than 3x higher then we are willing to predict NOW.
Other reports I have seen , go on to give market comparables. Meaning similar biotechs & what they trade @ and total market cap.
ONC , btw is one of the lowest on the list, yet far more advanced than many being compared to.
Promotion?
The fireside chats are just that.
institutional & finanier promotions?
RBC for example has an analysts who has been covering Onc for years.
in his portfolio ( healthcare sector), are in excess of 30-40 companies.
As was pointed out, many times companies get minimal to zero coverage until after the fact.
ill admit it is less than pleasant watching onc stagnate.
Double edge sword & I have seen many times.
Some investors, analysts etc will not touch Onc with a ten foot pole at its present price. Same people, will be jumping in to buy at double the price.
Why so quiet?
simple. They are waiting to get the overall,survival numbers from the bracelet MBc trial.
Until then, nothing new to say.
The pancreatic cancer trial results were awesome. That too is on a waiting pattern.
The phase 3 trial is on a timline, dictated by CGAR.
Yes they started an additional phase 2 for a separate co- theraoy. That will not delay anythin in place.
Can only provide an additional approval path.
Not discussed in any analyst report, is takeover or buyout potential.
That while a very feasible oppotunity & could happen anytime. Is not something analysts discuss.
Right now, there is an incredible difference between what Onc could be worth & its trading price.
That chasm will be corrected one way or the other, before the end of this year.
good weekend all.
Be safe, stay healthy & enjoy each day.