RE:RE:AXLPOO was over 80$ 2 weeks ago, and we touched 62 two days b4 the Aug29th NR about HZ4 results and Q2 financials release.
HZ4 results were amazing, as the 2 previous ones, Not the issue but the ones that brought the SP to 62 were probably expecting even higher production from that well.
I think the bad sentiment came from the decline rate from all the verticals leaving the total average production rate at only (!) 5,000 BOED (where more than 3,500 come from the only 3 HZ's.
Maybe also a bit of frustration and worries about the financials, where no net EPS were recorded for Q2. And some might ask themselves "if we're not able to record net earnings with POO above 75, what will happen if POO collapses?" which it actually did, going further down to reach as low as 69 b4 bouncing back over 70 for the end of the week
HOWEVER
Mgt has decided to go for 2 more HZ's b4 the EOY, rather than going to Chorreron right after HZ5. The game plan is to keep adding production and reserves while maintaining solid financials. For those that follow AXL since Oct 2021 (like myself),the SP has a very high correlation to production rate so far.
All to say that Mgt has executed as plans since the beginning. Maintained strong balance sheet with 12M$ in cash and no long term debt. A 100% success rate for the 15-16 (?) wells brought to production since 2021. Very high promissing prospects still for 2025. Allusion to potential divvys when we reach 10,000BOED (that's why I'm in since that long and kept adding all along).
Management team is dedicated, competent and carries a long history of successes. BUT unfortunately, they don't manage POO, US elections, Columbian laws and so forth, all events that traders dream of to capitalize on SP fluctuations.
AXL is a keeper. Unless POO really goes further down and stays low (we can still make $ untiul 60$ I believe), we will do very very well.
Rob