GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Comment by
yanncivilison Sep 19, 2024 5:32am
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Post# 36230409
RE:RE:well
RE:RE:wellPeople think that private equity or hedge funds are different from ordinary people. Well, they are run by people. I would say that a familly run business is more prone to emotional errors than true institutional investors with proper processes and risk management. Putting good money after bad and hoping that you can solve issues is nothing out of the ordinary. The capital structure was always against Pala in the case of a failure. Why? Because they decided to take on a secured lender with the German bank to reduce dilution 6 years or so ago. So their position whether debt or shares were always unsecured. And guess what? The bid doesn't even cover the German loan. It is a write down for everyone one. Some more than others obviously. Why is it so hard for people to understand that the underground mine is bad, really bad. Probably because most don't know anything about mining. Underground is risky and when you add water / ground problem with fairly low grade for underground (2.5% vs 5.0% in the congo...) , well... They should have started with the open pit but the price environment 7 years ago and capex was a difficult choice. Everyone talks about resource. NO ONE CARES ABOUT RESOURCE. FEASIBILITY STUDIES ARE MARKETING DOCUMENTS. NOT THE HOLLY GRAIL. If people don't understand that, stop investing in mining companies.
So in short, there is no play here, there is no manipulation. Granted, communication was bad and perhaps some cover up. But Pala genuinely thought they could fix it. Now they run out of money and they want to move on. That's it. No one bid, not because it is owned by Russians! No one bid because BHP and the likes focus on tier 1 assets. AND NCU IS NOT. Well located but terrible asset (low grade open pit included).
Grieving loss is a difficult process but growth starts with acceptance of your own mistakes