RE:RE:RE:RE:DividendWTI pricing averaged $81 in Q2 and CJ payed down 17% of net debt.
In Q3 WTI is averaging $79 without September numbers in yet.
If we allow a low $70 average for September Q3E WTI looks like a $76 average.
Will a 6% decrease in Q3 commodity pricing erase the gains that helped pay down the 17% of net debt in Q2? I doubt it. Especially since production should have a slight increase with lower sustaining cap-ex. Q3 ER numbers should be decent. Maybe no debt reduction but certainly no add either.
If Q4 WTI averages an assumed low of $70 that is still only a 14% drop in commodity pricing when production shoul be max and cap-ex should be min.
I think 2024 is safely covered with those scenerios even if WTI stays flat here with no debt add.
I believe you are right about 2025 guidance being key as belt tightening may be needed depending on how WTI commodity pricing performs in Q4.
But at that time we will be one year out from SAGD production adds with only 39% drawn on the expanded credit facility. More than enough to see them through with no divy cut required.
GLTY and all