Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, September 18, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 19 cents from $2.14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.33/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the October 2024 NYMEX contract increased 1 cent, from $2.270/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.284/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging October 2024 through September 2025 futures contracts decreased 2 cents to $2.944/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most major pricing locations this report week (Wednesday, September 11, to Wednesday, September 18), mostly in line with the Henry Hub. Price changes ranged from a decrease of 1 cent at Eastern Gas South to an increase of $1.79 at the Waha Hub.
  • In the Northeast, the price at the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, rose 2 cents from $1.98/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.00/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price increased 8 cents from $1.68/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.76/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area averaged 72°F, resulting in 47 cooling degree days (CDDs), 25 more CDDs than last week and 9 more than normal. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in the Northeast increased by 13% (1.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • Prices in the Southeast increased this report week. The price at the FGT Citygate, which delivers natural gas into Florida, increased 13 cents from $2.75/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.88/MMBtu yesterday. The price at the Houston Ship Channel increased 28 cents from $1.90/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.18/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico fell by 33% (0.6 Bcf/d) this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. As Hurricane Francine neared the Gulf Coast last week, offshore oil and gas operators temporarily shut in production, taking 53% (1.0 Bcf/d) of natural gas production offline as of Thursday, September 12. 
  • In California, prices rose despite a decrease in natural gas consumption. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 29 cents from $2.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.53/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 19 cents from $1.74 last Wednesday to $1.93/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in California decreased by 49% (1.2 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Temperatures in the Riverside Area, east of Los Angeles, averaged 70°F this report week compared with 89°F last week, resulting in 36 CDDs, 137 fewer CDDs than last week and 48 fewer than normal. Temperatures in the Sacramento Area followed a similar trend, averaging 69°F this week, which resulted in 33 CDDs, 59 fewer CDDs than last week and 22 fewer than normal. At the same time, natural gas flows into California from the Pacific Northwest decreased by 6% (0.1 Bcf/d), and natural gas flows from the Desert Southwest fell by 4% (0.2 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price rose $1.11 from $0.63/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.74/MMBtu yesterday. Effective September 16 through September 20, available throughput capacity is reduced by approximately 23% (0.4 Bcf/d) at  Station 4B Southon the Westcoast Energy pipeline system in British Columbia, which is operated by Enbridge. Natural gas flows on the T-South segment of the Westcoast Pipeline have been near capacity much of 2024, contributing to price volatility at Northwest Sumas this summer. The price at Northwest Sumas has been below $1.00/MMBtu on 20% of the trading days from May 1 through September 18 compared with 2% of the days during the same period in 2023. 
  • The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, went back into positive territory and increased by $1.79 from -$1.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.62/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $1.71 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $3.31 below the Henry Hub price.
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 38 cents to a weekly average of $13.40/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 32 cents to a weekly average of $11.44/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending September 20, 2023), the prices were $13.83/MMBtu in East Asia and $11.29/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 31 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.50/MMBtu for the week ending September 18. Ethane prices rose 16% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 10%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 39%. The ethylene spot price was unchanged week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane decreased 3%. Propane prices increased 2%, while Brent crude oil prices increased 2% week over week, widening the propane discount to crude oil by 2%. Normal butane prices rose 7%, isobutane prices fell 2%, and natural gasoline prices rose 4%.

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.6% (0.6 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.3% (0.4 Bcf/d) to average 101.2 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 4.6% (0.3 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 0.9% (0.6 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 0.1% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector decreased by 1.7% (0.4 Bcf/d), and consumption in the residential and commercial sector declined by 2.5% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 0.5% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.9 Bcf/d, or 0.5 Bcf/d lower than last week.

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.5 Bcf/d from last week to 12.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 3.9% (0.3 Bcf/d) to 7.7 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 6.7% (0.3 Bcf/d) to 4.1 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased by 7.5% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.1 Bcf/d. 
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-seven LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, five from Freeport, four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi, three from Cove Point, and two from Calcasieu Pass) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 102 Bcf departed the United States between September 12 and September 18, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, September 10, the natural gas rig count increased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 97 rigs. The Haynesville and Marcellus each added one rig, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 5 rigs from a week ago to 488 rigs. The Granite Wash added one rig, and four rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 5 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 590 rigs, 51 fewer rigs than a year ago.

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Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 58 Bcf for the week ending September 13, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 80 Bcf and last year's net injections of 62 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,445 Bcf, which is 274 Bcf (9%) more than the five-year average and 194 Bcf (6%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 46 Bcf to 65 Bcf, with a median estimate of 52 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 23% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 11.3 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 3,986 Bcf on October 31, which is 274 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.