RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Breast cancer treatment: perspectives on the oncolytic virusClearly Kirk Look lacks an understanding of the global HR+/HER- mBC markets, since he only cited the US market and left out the ROW, notwihstanding that it is presently being reported that the demand is hot for big results in key markets like mBC with an unmet treatment need.
Hot demand for biotech assets that can effectively address key cancer markets with unmet treatment needs, like HR+/HER2- mBC, and this heated demand is also being repeated for effective treatments in ophan and rare disease markets, like PDAC and anal cancer, respectively. ONCY has on-going Phase 2 clinical trials in first line PDAC and anal cancers, which are indications that the FDA has affirmed could be expeditiously granted FDA approval only using a small single arm clinical trial in each indication.
For Big Pharma, the emphasis now is on finding late-stage development therapies that have been de-risked with human data. ONCY has de-risked pelareorep over time, and as had been reported on today in HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer.
In another indication, ONCY's Thomas Heineman has stated that anal cancer is so rare that the FDA would approve treatment on the basis of a small single arm clinical trial. ONCY currently has a clinical trial running in anal cancer as a cohort in its Goblet-1 basket study.
So back to ONCY's current mBC results, a more realistic analysis for pelareorep's 3rd line market shows that around 122,000 HR+/HER2- mBC patients will be ready for pelareorep + paclitaxel treatment in the combined United States and EU-27 global regions.
Using the modeling that Kirk Look referenced during the Cantor chat and translating his reported valuations into the above 122,000 mBC patients, peak pelareorep annual sales at 5 years would reach approximately US$5.89 Billion in HR+/HER2- mBC alone.