Weekend update, lots to comment on First, as always wishing everyone a good day.
Regarding our Onc chat series. Great to see some decent comments.
Good, bad or neutral, wonderful to see an Onc focus .
My two cents worh
I was not able to listen to either of the two fireside chats. I appreciate some could care less, im not well physically. & with the recent passing of our son, emotionally not the best either.
Point, I don't have a lot of spare time to comment, or read the posts.
As a routine, I do catch up on Sunday.
I see interesting comments re finance guy Mr. Kirk look.
His title & job involves finance. His background & schooling is finance.
For those who don't know: Accountants by schooling,persona & acumen are very detailed & focused on accuracy.
In that context, very conservative people.
My read from the comments on here, he did not present great information regarding clinical, medical, laboratory or study related indeas moving forward.
i agree 100% , he is not the person to be public cheerleader for Pelareoreps " potentials" & various scinarios available.examples being accelerated approval, various trial parameters etc etc.
On that same subject. That does not make him inept or make ONC mangement in general inept.
Quick example. When I was on a B.O.D. The financial questions & data came to & from the CFO.
The specific scientific details came to & from the various experts within the required information needs at that time.certainly not the C.F. O.
Regarding the very recent update on the bracelet trial results.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the " outcomes" are based on people dying. At trial end time , many were still alive,!
Clinically great news. Statistically hard to deal with numbers that don't exist.
The take away, they now have numbers, both from older studies & most recent.
They have FDA guidelines for phase 3. Now they need a source of $$ to register & start the trial.
options?
A pharma co- therapy license agreement. Similar partership agreement. Or a complete buyout.
It was again mentioned the global opportunity of $5+ billion/ year market for MBc treatment.
Thst same number has been used by RBC analyst for years.
Add- on the upcoming Pancreatic cancer opportunity & you get product sales higher yet again.
Not to be forgotten, the IREN study with triple neg breast cancer.
Thst trial is very quietly moving forward.
The SP right now, is beyond silly low. That is a study in of itself.
i agree with noteable as well. They will be announcing a financial deal soon.
Quite simply they need to come up with an option to move forward.
With every negotiation there are items on the plus side & on the negative side.
Clinically massive contributors to the plus side.
Assuming a complete buyout. The inplace accumulated carry forward $$ loss is greater than the existing trading price.
Many companies get bought & sold , for the aquirier looking at the accounting loss, to be used against corporate profits.
Back to clinical. They now have data, biomarkers, FDA fastrack approval for both MBc & the pancreatic phase 2 completed trial.
They as a result if a competive process grant, started a new arm ( cohort #5 with Roche) , phase 2
FYI, oncolytics biotech is in collaboration with Roche in four out of five successful G.I. Cancer cotherapy programs.
The most significant being the scheduled to start next year. Also with direction and assistance from CGAG. A global leader in pancreatic cancer treatments.
in simple terms , many significant opportunities for sucsess.
On the negative side of the ledger?
onc is in a " must do" financial scinario.
Tough position to negotiate from.
That significantly hinders the upside potential. That does limit the downside , but not as significant.
In todays bio/ pharm market place, Onc is one of the lowest market cap in its comparable basket.
recent analysts have put a 12 month target of $5/ ps average.
That number is ultra conservative (accountants), & does not speculate on a buyout price.
Years ago, they published on the investor presentation similar O.V. Business take over comparables.
The lowest ( then) was about $500mill usd.
Saying that, and all things considered a " walk away" minium would be over a $billion.
With a fair & reasonable number being in the $3B to $5b range.
" soon"?
before the end of this calendar year.
What to expect?
I know many would want a buyout. This has been a very long journey.
With the recent bracelet numbers, there is not much significant clinically to report.
Time to sit down, sharpen the pencils & do a deal.
One reason the SP is so low. Lack of a clear path & long history of delays.
That equates to doubts.
The SP does not match the clinical progress.
Thst equates to a great take over opportunity.
I'll know the results as soon as everyone else does.
enjoy our great Canadian fall weather.
stay safe & healthy.