The Latest Iteration of the Long running, Short Attack on NF.....this Short Attack has been ongoing for I think about 3 1/2 years. For most of this history, NFG has had a short position against it of between one to two million shares. Tiny in the annals of Short Position Attack campaigns, considering NFG now has around 200 million shares outstanding, and it wasn't hugely below that a few years ago ( from memory, not data).
The first time I'm aware of a Short position and campaign against NFG was in around February of 2021, when the stock price on the Venture exchange had pulled back from its rocket launch as an IPO at around $1.50 CAD, which then advanced quickly to between $4 or 5 CAD. The stock price pulled back to the 3-ish area after that for a brief period. That is when a report very similar ( similar writing style, similar arguments skeptical of NFG, and using dismissive language which struck me as non-professional, and a smarmy tone, uncharacteristic of actual research reports put out by Stock brokerage research departments) to the current report by the mysterious 'Iceberg' outfit........is it just a shell company, with one guy behind it?.........I don't know, and I haven't seen anything written here revealing much about this 'ICEBERG' outfit....one man or not.
This first 'analyst report' written against NFG came out, if memory serves me, around February of 2021, when NFG stock had pulled back from $4 to 5 CAD, down to the 3-ish area......really bad timing for this initial Short Attack on NFG, because from the 3-ish area, NFG AGAIN rocketed higher, up to $13.50 CAD. I presume in that intial Short Attack , the Short Players got destroyed.
I won't mention the actual name of the investment outfit that inked that initial skeptical report against NFG. But, I do note that this outfit is an actual investment firm. They appear to have a specialty in the Canadian junior resource exploration company industry, yet, curiously, they are not located in Canada, but in a country noted for the near impossibility of suing any entity for slander (my understanding of this view comes from a notable public figure who explained this during radio broadcasts, because in spite of his wealth, it was futile for him to sue someone in this country for slander.)
As the years progressed, there have been additional, occassional ' analyst reports' written from a exceedingly skeptical point of view from this same firm from overseas. The reports are very similar in style and content and arguments against NFG as the current ' Iceberg' report, from this mysterious Iceberg entity.....coincidence?......hmmmm.
Through the past few years the Short Position against NFG has remained. I don't recall it dipping much below one million shares held Short, and I don't think it went much above two million shares, from my memory.
All during this time frame, NFG has made steady progress in drilling drill holes and recording dramatic high grade intercepts, quite often the highest grade gold intercepts of any exploration outfit in Canada. The results have wowed many observers, such as Bob Moriarity of the newsletter 123Gold. Also, the key observers apparently in the know behind NFG have been quite upbeat about their belief that the Queensway project ( 650 square miles in area with gold in soil samples in many places along the two fault lines that traverse the Queensway property, both over 100 kilometers in length, thus over 200 kilometers of fault line length) will be being mined for decades into the future.
Renowned junior resource stock investor, Erich Sprott, who along with his daughters ( he gave them stock he owns of NFG) and his various legal entities own a huge stake in NFG (I believe all of the Sprott holdings is north of 30% of NFG - over $250 million XAD invested in NFG, the biggest holding of his illustrious career). And, as one would expect, Erich Sprott is quite exuberant of the potential of the giant Queensway project, as well as the drill results of high grade gold NFG has made to date. Erich Sprott spoke of the great opportunity in Newfoundland at a resource company gathering at Gander, NL last Spring I believe it was. Is on record on You tube.
A couple of years ago, NFG gained a listing on the USA located exchange called the AMEX.This was the old American Stock Exchange, a long established exchange were quote tables used to be listed in most American newspapers before the advent of the internet. Now, the AMEX has been taken over by the New York Stock Exchange, I believe.......very, very few Canadian junior resource exploration stocks have a listing in the USA on well established, main stream exchanges. Most DO have listing on the OTC Market and ' Pink Sheets'. Thus, NFG is very notable in having their American version of their stock traded on the AMEX, under the symbol NFGC.
The Short position for the combined listing in Canada and in the USA's AMEX have remained between the total of one to two million, and possibly somewhat above two million most of these past couple of years.
Most of the shares sold short have been on the Venture exchange. The AMEX short position has held fairly steady most of the time, somewhere around 1/2 million shares sold Short. But, recently, this summer to be exact, the Short position has moved up dramatically. It moved up to around 900,000 in the first time I recall it moving up noticeably. And, it kept rising a lot....the latest figures reported for August 30th was 3.8 million shares sold Short.
This increase in the total Short position coincided with the gradual movement lower in the Stock price of NFG over the summer, while the typical summer doldrums for gold stocks played out, along with a dearth of information being released by NFG.
Shareholders in NFG have noticed what appears to be the obvious signs of price manipulation against NFG stock for quite a long time, now. Because the Short position in NFG has been so tiny for so long, most investors poo-pooed the idea that the stock price of NFG has been being manipulated by a Short position. However, over time, the evidence....the observations, more accurately, of experienced investors with access to solid trading data, came to be absolutely convinced that the Short position in NFG has been actively suppressed by the Short position, and the tiny percentage of shares held Short in NFG didn't matter.
The facts appear to be that, though relatively small in size, the Short position very actively and very, very aggressively, does do all it can to hold down the price of NFG.....Few investors doubt this now.....including Erich Sprott, who has commented publically how he notes the manipulations directed at the NFG stock price, noting in his speech in Gander I referred to above how at the last minute of trading, last second sales into bids are virtually ever present, to knock the price down a penny or two or more.
I believe Sprott has indicated recently that he has hired a firm to investigate who is behind the Short position. ( might this be yet another reason for the Short position to COVER?....hmmmm)
There are obvious other signs of manipulation. During rallies on good fundamental drill results for example, the Short position increases, as the Shorts apparently allow the buying pressure to dissipate against their increased Short selling.
Of course, there are other factors contributing to NFGs muted price action, notably the inability to allow its rallies to hold and build upon said rallies over time. Obviously, like all junior resource exploration stocks, NFG must raise capital for ongoing exploration efforts. NFG has used their AT THE MARKET approved facility with the regulators to sell new shares into the market directly over the past year. That facility has expired, but NFG has been approved to raise $300 million CAD recently in various sales of their stock, including other current holders of stock to sell said shares, such as Palisades Gold, which holds a similar sized holding of stock compared to Erich Sprott. Between the big holders of NFG shares, somewhere over 60% of NFG shares are closely held by insiders.
What can be made of this recent ' Iceberg' report, which has such a striking resemblance to past dismissive reports released by the overseas outfit in the past?
Was the Iceberg report merely mimicking the past dismissive reports launched against NFG at opportune times in the past? Who was the ACTUAL author of the equally dismissive report by the mysterious 'Iceberg' entity.
The really STRIKING observation was how absolutely HUGE the volume of selling was upon the release of the ' Iceberg' report. The volume was about as high as the two exchange listing of NFG have ever seen.
But here is the really TELLING observation. Myself and another poster observed the absolutely FRENETIC BUYING of all this huge volume. One poster wrote about the large block trades he noticed being posted. Blocks in the many tens of thousands of shares. I noticed the very large bids on the high bid appearing regularly during the wave of selling after the release of the 'Iceberg' report.
The conclusion I had was that there was HUGE buying by parties that appeared to be Totally Confident in buying up huge chunks of shares. ....why were they so obviously confident? What did these buyers know?
Surely, WITHOUT the HUGE and frenetic buying, the share price would have been lowered much more given the very large panic selling (or, could even much of what I call ' panic selling' have been part of the Short Selling cabal selling to each other to increase the appearance of panic selling?.....such intrigue....how will we ever know.....or, will Erich Sprott's investigation discover some of these phenomenon?).
Obviously, just like the past so so similar dismissive reports put out about NFG in the past by the overseas firm, the ' Iceberg' report was designed to generate Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt ( FUD).
So, why the obvious fervor to buy up HUGE quantities of shares being 'panic sold' ( or nade to appear being panic sold) from the issuance of the Iceberg report. ....did BIG BUYERS KNOW of the coming release of the Iceberg report?......I would say that this seems very likely.
What does the big buying on these past two days indicate? I think it is quite possible that the Short Position is covering. GIven the striking and relentless rise in the gold price, and given the assumption of many well regarded expert observers of the gold exploration industry in Canada , that NFG has already found significant gold reserves just on the very small percentage of the MASSIVE Queensway project (yes, no MRE done yet, but the drilling results seem staggeringly successful to many keen experts) that they have extensively drilled so far, that NFG's stock price has been driven down about as far as it can go, safely, for a Short Position to risk further delay in covering.
The FED has probably now entered an interest rate reduction campaign which could last for some time, which just underpins the gold price.
Major Gold producers will likely be looking to expand their reserve base by buying top notch exploration companies, which NFG may well be one of their possible targets. ...Was the authority to sell $300 million shares of NFG stock geared so high so as to allow a 10 to 20% or higher piece of NFG to be sold to a Big Gold firm?
Big Gold firms have mines all over the world. They have mines in sketchy countries where political instability could result in expropriation of their mines.
The average gold mine in the world mines around 1 to 1.5 grams of gold per ton. Erich Sprott raves about the huge profitability of high grade gold deposits, such as serms likely NFG has, just like his famously successful investment in the Fosterville mine in Australia, of which NFGs Queensway is compared to regularly.
NFGs Queensway property is located in one of the most stable and favorable jurisdictions in the world....Canada, and particularly Newfoundland, which publically states they want 5 new mines operating in Newfoundland by 2030. .....Jurisdictions just don't get much better than Newfoundland, and NL is RANKED as among the best jurisdictions in the world.
And, then there is the fact of Queensways location. The Trans Canadian Highway cuts across Queensway, in sight of the vast bulk of the drilling NFG has accomplished. ....Gander, one of NL's biggest towns, with 10,000 people is just a few miles away. Workers can live in Gander and drive a short commute to Queensway. ....But, Queensway is so huge, that NFG has even built a well appointed camp for workers on the south end of Queensway, where some exploration continues......(does such an expense sound like NFG is NOT confident of their future?......that NFG is a PROMOTIONAL outfit?........why go to such expense if the goal is NOT to be an ongoing operation?).
My view is that it is most likely that the Short position has decided that it is now too risky to maintain their short position, and the Iceberg report was another tactic to begin to exit their Short position in NFG. If this is the case, and the huge and frenzied buying of all the shares being panic sold (or given the APPEARANCE that they were being panic sold) was strong implications that this was what was happening,; then, we may be seeing the beginning of the end of the Short position in NFG.
We KNOW what inspired the HUGE volume of selling.......But, WHAT inspired the HUGE amount of obviously very CONFIDENT buying of big blocks of shares.....WHAT did the buyers know?
One final point re the Iceberg report.
It appeared to me that this Iceberg report was indicating that NFGs past assay reports had been fraudulent, and regulators called them on it. Yes, regulators had some questions, and NFG went back and redid all of their assays for quite some distance. ( this was about two years ago). However, the net result was that NFGs assays showed to have been accurate all along.......my suspicion has always been that that Short position had gotten ahold of the ear of some regulatory Auhority, and pushed, cajoled, PERSUADED such Authority to raise this issue. None the less, NFG resolved this phony issue with flying colors.......