Germany’s Medical Cannabis Boom Is in Full Swing -
German med market up 3x now at a run rate of ~5tons per mo vs 5ton for all of 4Q23;
-
cash payer segment and value driving a good chunk of the growth;
-
much easier to get a prescription (for the cost of a coffee), given telehealth (no Dr visit);
-
B&M pharmacies somewhat slow in filling prescriptions, so the online pharmacies (automating) are taking share;
-
if the total MMJ market is now at 60tons pa, we'd say domestic production is at best 5ton(?), so exporting countries like Canada are benefitting;
-
3Q import data not out yet, but in 2Q24 54% of imports came from Canada, 15% Portugal, 10% Denmark.
Net, this is all good for the leading Canadian LPs, assuming they are holding market share: Tilray Aurora_MMJ CanopyGrowth and for emerging exporters like Organigram_Inc villagefarms Decibel_CC AvantBrands.
This data, thru the 1st 2 quarters of 2024, only includes the 1st quarter of Germany's Descheduled Medical cannabis from April 1 thru June 30th.
As well the German govt gave approval in July, which is not included in this data, for the 3 In Country grow facilities to grow to full facility, and grow their BEST strains, no lower German Govt Quota or Strains.
Tilray have stated they will bring their growth up to full facility in stages, 3X, 5X and so on.
Even thru Tilrays 2nd quarter, Sept 1 thru November 30th, that will be opened early January 2025, we may not see any of the 31 Best Strains or increased domestic production of 3X. Tilray has a HUGE advantage with Portugal grow op. Also remember Denmark production included on that list. Aphria also has connections in Denmark https://www.floraldaily.com/article/9017031/subsidiary-schroll-flowers-to-produce-cannabis/
Quarter over Quarter these German and EU markets will be improving.
Add in the US growth just added and more being added included US Infused beverages before the 4th quarter
Copied from TLRY reddit