RE:Climbing
TheBridge wrote: Finally and hopefully on the climb to the $35 mark.
With the commodity price low and not yet showing signs of recovery, it's far more likely dividend chasers bidding up... as happens every year around this time...
Go back and review our convo a year ago to remind yourself as the story is still pretty much the same with a cheaper commodity price... The last dividend was an odd outlier in its timing, but the previous 2 were also lower than even I expected, and hit the exact bottom of the range I gave you.
Congrats on receiving your $2.70 in dividends the past year, but your down about $2.80 in share price since that discussion... Pretty much how I told you things would play out... Tell you what, here is the copy and paste so you don't have to do the work... I really tried to talk sense to you and warn others...
Excellent job on your negative return my freind and getting people excited for it!
Sept 18th 2023:
TheBridge wrote:JayBanks, I also realize that the dividend payouts have dropped. But let's take a look at the situation of the 95 cent dividend being distrubuted for 4 quarters, that's $3.80 annually on today's share price of $33.91 that would produce a dividend rate of 11.2%, not too shabby! And then there's a reasonable potential of a nice capital gain on top of that for those willling to wait. Nice that we're all free to make our personal choices in the market.
But is it going to remain at 95 cents for all 4 quarters?
Since 2017 it's been variable, the base + 3-4 quarters of specials, since Covid the specials are wrapped up just the dividend. Usually the October payout is one of the two highest with January's payout, likely due to increased volumes of shipping in the summer, but the July and April payouts are typically lower. 3 of the last 6 years the full year total has been below $3. The major outsized payments have come from periods of high prices, which we seem to be heading into now which is positive, but when it turns back down into the normal trend your not likely going to see these large payouts.
It's also worth noting that usually the end and into the following year the LIF price moves up (likely because of the high payouts, yield chasers) and then falls (usually) more than twice what the full year dividend payout actually is when the chasers jump out when they realize the October/January payouts are not staying this high...
If your going to play this game you better keep a tight stop-loss for this run up excitement, as it's likely by next spring this will be trading close to $30 maybe below. Which means the $3.80 your hoping to get (but likely $3.20-2.70) for the full year will have been burnt up.