RE:RE:> 40 soon?Tree2tree wrote: NF13 I think you nailed it. Besides the simple fear factor, I think many investors don't really understand the relation between the debentures and the asset values. The two views:
1. Missed interest payments --> debentures are toast
2. Missed interest payments --> market overreacts --> rare opportunity to buy real assets cheap
If you own a house and the tenant misses the rent payment a couple of times, does that mean the house is now worthless to you? If you have a mortage for 95% of the market value, then maybe. If you have a mortgage for 50%-60% of the market value, then no.
Tree2tree has unwittingly touched upon the issue with the debentures. He may be rediscovering the wheel, but it needs refinement.
The IFRS asset value on several of these properties is inflated. The LTV is considerably higher than acknowledged. The special resolution in January TEMPORARILY removed a leverage restriction until December 2025. They were maxed out.
The debentures are unsecured. The good news - team Armoyan who voted for the special resolution owns a lot of them and they are horribly underwater. This is NOT his first disco.
I expect a recapitalisation at some stage. Common shareholders are probably toast, debenture holders will get a proportion of the new REIT equity - probably around where they are trading - 30-40 cents on the dollar. Being "made whole" with interest payments would be awesome, but is somewhat unlikely.
Check out previous debacles with Royal Host / Holloway lodging etc. Some good money was made back in the day ;-)
https://divestor.com/?p=4412