Volume and proximity to Top Line Took a look at historical share volume on my online trading platform during the period of time of the 2016 run up to Phase 3 data release. 8 years have passed since this event and we are on the eve of another massively consequential event.
Unfortunately I couldn't figure out how to capture/cut/paste the data.
Observations:
6 months out it was consistently under 500,000 shares per day ( I assume it picks up true volume including dark pools ) - but gradually rising at about 5-6 months out mark.
3 months out it looked to be averaging between 500k to 800k/ day
In the last few weeks there were many well above 1 million share days ( some over 4 million)
Will history repeat? Not necessarily
Will "Johnny- come- lately's" speculate/participate in the final few months ? Almost for sure.
How many months left before the Phase 3b top line results are released ( assuming no early takeout)?
Maybe 5-7 months from now.
Will longs be selling ? Only some profit takers as and when the price rises.
Will there be shorting ? Highly unlikely and dangerous
The share price tripled during the 6 month period leading up to the Phase 3 data release.
While history may not repeat, longs should take this similar period of time, into account.
MM